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A Small Structural Monetary Policy Model for Small Open Economies with Debt Accumulation

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  • Philippe D Karam
  • A. R. Pagan

Abstract

We extend a small New Keynesian structural model used for monetary policy analysis to address a richer class of policy issues that arise in open economy analysis. We draw a distinction between absorption and domestic output, and as the difference between the two is effectively the current account, there is now an explicit accumulation or decumulation of foreign liabilities in response to various shocks affecting the system. Such stock equilibria can now have an impact back on to the flows in the domestic economy. We perform simulations using parameters calibrated to the Canadian economy and compare the differences in impulse responses from the original model. Advantages in a forecasting environment owing to the ability to impose explicit projections about imports and exports are also exposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe D Karam & A. R. Pagan, 2008. "A Small Structural Monetary Policy Model for Small Open Economies with Debt Accumulation," IMF Working Papers 08/64, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/64
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    2. Casares, Miguel & McCallum, Bennett T., 2006. "An optimizing IS-LM framework with endogenous investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 621-644.
    3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    4. Philippe D Karam & Douglas Hostland, 2005. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods," IMF Working Papers 05/226, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-342, December.
    6. Justiniano, Alejandro & Preston, Bruce, 2010. "Can structural small open-economy models account for the influence of foreign disturbances?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 61-74.
    7. Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis; A How-To Guide," IMF Working Papers 06/81, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:lap:journl:601 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mardi Dungey & M.Tugrul Vehbi, 2011. "A SVECM Model of the UK Economy and The Term Premium," CAMA Working Papers 2011-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Poghosyan, Karen & Boldea, Otilia, 2013. "Structural versus matching estimation: Transmission mechanisms in Armenia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 136-148.
    4. Poghosyan, K., 2012. "Structural and reduced-form modeling and forecasting with application to Armenia," Other publications TiSEM ad1a24c3-15e6-4f04-b338-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stráský, Jan, 2008. "Oil exporters: in search of an external anchor," Working Paper Series 958, European Central Bank.
    6. Pedro Elosegui y Nicolás Grosman, 2016. "Structural Economic Model for Ecuador: a Dollar-ized and Oil-ized Economy," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 62, pages 23-53, January-D.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt; Emerging markets; Monetary policy; Forecasting models; Small open economy; model construction and estimation; inflation; terms of trade; open economy; foreign currency;

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