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External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia; Insights from A Bayesian VAR Model

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  • Pär Österholm
  • Lisandro Abrego

Abstract

This paper investigates the sensitivity of Colombian GDP growth to the surroundingmacroeconomic environment. We estimate a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-statepriors for the Colombian economy using quarterly data from 1995 to 2007. A variancedecomposition shows that world GDP growth and government spending are the most importantfactors, explaining roughly 17 and 16 percent of the variance in Colombian GDP growthrespectively. The model, which is shown to forecast well out-of-sample, can also be used toanalyse alternative scenarios. Generating both endogenous and conditional forecasts, we showthat the impact on Colombian GDP growth of a substantial downturn in world GDP growthwould be non-negligible but still a mild decline by historical standards.

Suggested Citation

  • Pär Österholm & Lisandro Abrego, 2008. "External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia; Insights from A Bayesian VAR Model," IMF Working Papers 08/46, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/46
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Villani, Mattias & Warne, Anders, 2003. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy using Bayesian Cointegrated Structural VARs," Working Paper Series 156, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    2. Pär Österholm, 2008. "Can forecasting performance be improved by considering the steady state? An application to Swedish inflation and interest rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 41-51.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    4. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    5. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & César Calderón, 2005. "Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean : Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7315.
    6. Malin Adolfson & Michael K. Andersson & Jesper Lindé & Mattias Villani & Anders Vredin, 2007. "Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 111-144, December.
    7. Lucchetti, Riccardo, 2006. "Identification Of Covariance Structures," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, pages 235-257.
    8. P&aauml;r Österholm & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2008. "The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(4), pages 595-623, December.
    9. Jeronimo Zettelmeyer, 2006. "Growth and Reforms in Latin America; A Survey of Facts and Arguments," IMF Working Papers 06/210, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Mattias Villani, 2009. "Steady-state priors for vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 630-650.
    11. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés González, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(69), pages 14-66, Diciembre.
    2. Rupa Duttagupta & N. Barrera, 2010. "The Impact of the Global Crisis on Canada—What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us?," IMF Working Papers 10/5, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Serhat Solmaz & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2015. "How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy; Nowcasting an Emerging Market," IMF Working Papers 15/269, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Daniel Leigh, 2008. "Achieving a Soft Landing; The Role of Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 08/69, International Monetary Fund.
    5. repec:col:000101:013858 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gerardo Alberto Villa Durán, 2014. "Un índice coincidente para Medellín," ENSAYOS SOBRE ECONOMÍA REGIONAL (ESER) 013858, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ECONOMÍA REGIONAL.
    7. Lavan Mahadeva & Javier Gómez Pineda, 2009. "The international cycle and Colombian monetary policy," Borradores de Economia 557, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. SENBETA, Sisay Regassa, 2012. "How important are external shocks in explaining growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2012010, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 14/232, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Enrique Flores & Daniel Leigh & Benedict J. Clements, 2009. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Options for Dealing with External Shocks - Insights from the GIMF for Colombia," IMF Working Papers 09/59, International Monetary Fund.
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Uruguay; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 09/103, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Colombia; Economic growth; Private investment; Forecasting models; Bayesian VAR; gdp growth; forecasting; mean square; real gdp;

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