A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model
This is the second of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.
|Date of creation:||01 Dec 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Athanasios Orphanides, 2003.
"Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2003-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
- Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan & Sonali Rohatgi, 2000. "Listening to loan officers: the impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-16.
- Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis: A How-To Guide," IMF Working Papers 06/81, International Monetary Fund.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
- Tamim Bayoumi & Ola Melander, 2008. "Credit Matters: Empirical Evidence on U.S. Macro-Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 08/169, International Monetary Fund.
- Igor Ermolaev & Michel Juillard & Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Douglas Laxton & Ondra Kamenik & Dmitry Korshunov, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy," IMF Working Papers 08/278, International Monetary Fund.
- Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Credit effects in the monetary mechanism," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 217-235.
- Eyal Argov & David Rose & Philippe D Karam & Natan P. Epstein & Douglas Laxton, 2007. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility in a Small Macro Model of Israel," IMF Working Papers 07/207, International Monetary Fund.
- Dennis P. J. Botman & David Rose & Douglas Laxton & Philippe D Karam, 2007. "DSGE Modeling at the Fund: Applications and Further Developments," IMF Working Papers 07/200, International Monetary Fund.
- Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2007.
"Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries,"
IMF Working Papers
07/182, International Monetary Fund.
- Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2009. "Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 353-383, June.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995.
"Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission,"
NBER Working Papers
5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- David Laidler, 2003.
"The Price Level, Relative Prices, and Economic Stability: Aspects of the Inter-War Debate,"
UWO Department of Economics Working Papers
200310, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- David Laidler, 2003. "The price level, relative prices and economic stability: aspects of the interwar debate," BIS Working Papers 136, Bank for International Settlements.
- Michel Juillard & Michael Kumhof & Ondra Kamenik, 2005.
"Optimal price setting and inflation inertia in a rational expectations model,"
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Juillard, Michael & Kamenik, Ondra & Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas, 2008. "Optimal price setting and inflation inertia in a rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2584-2621, August.
- Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysisâ€”Overview," IMF Working Papers 06/80, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/279. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.