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A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model

Author

Listed:
  • Jared Laxton
  • Igor Ermolaev
  • Charles Freedman
  • Ondrej Kamenik
  • Michel Juillard
  • Douglas Laxton
  • Ioan Carabenciov
  • Dmitry Korshunov

Abstract

This is the second of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.

Suggested Citation

  • Jared Laxton & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Ondrej Kamenik & Michel Juillard & Douglas Laxton & Ioan Carabenciov & Dmitry Korshunov, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 08/279, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/279
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Juillard, Michael & Kamenik, Ondra & Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas, 2008. "Optimal price setting and inflation inertia in a rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2584-2621, August.
    2. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2009. "Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 353-383, June.
    3. Igor Ermolaev & Michel Juillard & Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Douglas Laxton & Ondrej Kamenik & Dmitry Korshunov, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy," IMF Working Papers 08/278, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    5. Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis; A How-To Guide," IMF Working Papers 06/81, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Eyal Argov & David Rose & Philippe D Karam & Natan P. Epstein & Douglas Laxton, 2007. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility in a Small Macro Model of Israel," IMF Working Papers 07/207, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan & Sonali Rohatgi, 2000. "Listening to loan officers: the impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-16.
    8. David Laidler, 2003. "The Price Level, Relative Prices, and Economic Stability: Aspects of the Inter-War Debate," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 200310, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    9. Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Credit effects in the monetary mechanism," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 217-235.
    10. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    11. Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 06/80, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Dennis P Botman & David Rose & Douglas Laxton & Philippe D Karam, 2007. "DSGE Modeling at the Fund; Applications and Further Developments," IMF Working Papers 07/200, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Tamim Bayoumi & Ola Melander, 2008. "Credit Matters; Empirical Evidence on U.S. Macro-Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 08/169, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2015. "Forecasting macroeconomic data for an emerging market with a nonlinear DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 215-228.
    3. Pär Österholm, 2010. "Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 16-26, Spring.
    4. Liu, Li-gang & Zhang, Wenlang, 2010. "A New Keynesian model for analysing monetary policy in Mainland China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 540-551, December.
    5. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2013. "Forecasting South African Macroeconomic Data with a Nonlinear DSGE Model," Working Papers 201313, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Olivier Gervais & Marc-André Gosselin, 2014. "Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model," Technical Reports 102, Bank of Canada.
    7. repec:eee:reveco:v:50:y:2017:i:c:p:49-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Holtemöller, Oliver & Mallick, Sushanta, 2016. "Global food prices and monetary policy in an emerging market economy: The case of India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 56-70.
    9. J. Sebastián Amador-Torres, 2018. "New Keynesian NAIRU and the Okun Law: An application for Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1034, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Wieland, V. & Afanasyeva, E. & Kuete, M. & Yoo, J., 2016. "New Methods for Macro-Financial Model Comparison and Policy Analysis," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    11. Hanna Armelius & Carl-Johan Belfrage & Hanna Stenbacka, 2014. "The Mystery of the Missing Growth in World Trade after the Global Financial Crisis," EcoMod2014 6933, EcoMod.
    12. Michel Juillard & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Douglas Laxton & Ondrej Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Jared Laxton, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/280, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn, 2009. "Modelling International Linkages for Large Open Economies: US and Euro Area," CAMA Working Papers 2009-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Hail Park & Yongcheol Shin, 2014. "Mapping Korea's International Linkages using Generalised Connectedness Measures," Working Papers 2014-16, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    15. Giesen, Sebastian & Holtemöller, Oliver & Scharff, Juliane & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012. "The Halle Economic Projection Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1461-1472.

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