Stress Testing Household Debt in Korea
Korean household debt has reached 148 percent of disposable income, high by emerging market standards. Most of this debt remains at variable rates, shifting the interest rate risk from better diversified financial institutions to households and increasing their sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks. This paper examines the sources of, and risks from, household debt by employing stress tests on household level panel data. Results suggest that a 100-300 bps increase in interest rates could increase distressed household debt household debt by 8½?17 percentage points (ppt). A drop in real estate prices by 10?30 percent could add another 4 ppt to distressed debt. Ongoing transition to amortizing mortgages in 2008?09 presents additional challenges as interest payments on debt are likely to increase further.
|Date of creation:||01 Nov 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ana del Río & Garry Young, 2005.
"The impact of unsecured debt on financial distress among British households,"
0512, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Ana Del-Río & Garry Young, 2005. "The impact of unsecured debt on financial distress among British households," Bank of England working papers 262, Bank of England.
- Cox, Donald & Jappelli, Tullio, 1993. "The Effect of Borrowing Constraints on Consumer Liabilities," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 197-213, May.
- Donald Cox & Tullio Japelli, 1993. "The Effect Of Borrowing Constraints On Consumer Liabilities," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 228, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Glenn B. Canner & Arthur B. Kennickell & Charles A. Luckett, 1995. "Household sector borrowing and the burden of debt," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Apr, pages 323-338.
- Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Peter Smith & W. N. W. Azman-Saini, 2006. "Testing liquidity constraints in 10 Asian developing countries: an error-correction model approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(21), pages 2535-2543.
- Campbell, Jeffrey R. & Hercowitz, Zvi, 2009. "Welfare implications of the transition to high household debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-16, January.
- Jeffrey R. Campbell & Zvi Hercowitz, 2006. "Welfare implications of the transition to high household debt," Working Paper Series WP-06-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Herrala, Risto & Kauko, Karlo, 2007. "Household loan loss risk in Finland : estimations and simulations with micro data," Research Discussion Papers 5/2007, Bank of Finland.
- Ceyla Pazarbasioglu & Gudrun Johnsen & Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Inci Ötker, 2005. "Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies," IMF Working Papers 05/151, International Monetary Fund.
- Dean M. Maki, 2000. "The growth of consumer credit and the household debt service burden," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Coricelli, Fabrizio & Mucci, Fabio & Revoltella, Debora, 2006. "Household Credit in the New Europe: Lending Boom or Sustainable Growth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tommaso Monacelli, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Collateralized Household Debt and Borrowing Constraints," NBER Chapters,in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 103-146 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tommaso Monacelli, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Collateralized Household Debt and Borrowing Constraints," NBER Working Papers 12470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gabe de Bondt, 1999. "Credit channels and consumption in Europe: empirical evidence," BIS Working Papers 69, Bank for International Settlements.
- Fumio Hayashi, 1985. "The Effect of Liquidity Constraints on Consumption: A Cross-Sectional Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(1), pages 183-206.
- Guy Debelle, 2004. "Macroeconomic implications of rising household debt," BIS Working Papers 153, Bank for International Settlements. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)