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Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries

  • Kamilya Tazhibayeva
  • Aasim M. Husain
  • Anna Ter-Martirosyan
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    This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes affect the economic cycle only through their impact on fiscal policy. Once fiscal policy changes are removed, oil price shocks do not have a significant independent effect on the economic cycle.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/253.

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    Length: 21
    Date of creation: 01 Nov 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/253
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    1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Antonio Spilimbergo, 2007. "Measuring the Performance of Fiscal Policy in Russia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 43(6), pages 25-44, November.
    3. Ardagna, Silvia & Caselli, Francesco & Lane, Timothy, 2004. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Ravn, Morten O, 1997. "Permanent and Transitory Shocks, and the UK Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 27-48, Jan.-Feb..
    5. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge Roldos, 1997. "Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?," IMF Working Papers 97/9, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Bankim Chadha & Eswar Prasad, 1993. "Interpreting the Cyclical Behavior of Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 266-298, June.
    7. Ardagna, Silvia & Caselli, Francesco & Lane, Timothy, 2004. "Fiscal discipline and the cost of public dept service: some estiames for OECD countries," Working Paper Series 0411, European Central Bank.
    8. Alfredo Baldini, 2005. "Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles in an Oil-Producing Economy: The Case of Venezuela," IMF Working Papers 05/237, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Emmanuel Saez, 2002. "Direct or Indirect Tax Instruments for Redistribution: Short-run versus Long-run," NBER Working Papers 8833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
    11. Finn E. Kydland & Calos E.J.M.Zarazaga, 1997. "Is the business cycle of Argentina "different?"," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 21-36.
    12. Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Trinity Economics Papers 20032, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    13. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
    14. Blejer, Mario I & Cheasty, Adrienne, 1991. "The Measurement of Fiscal Deficits: Analytical and Methodological Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1644-78, December.
    15. Kaiser, Regina & Maravall, Agustin, 2005. "Combining filter design with model-based filtering (with an application to business-cycle estimation)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 691-710.
    16. Francis Y. Kumah & John Matovu, 2005. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Oddson Fiscal Performance," IMF Working Papers 05/171, International Monetary Fund.
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