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Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries

  • Kamilya Tazhibayeva
  • Aasim M. Husain
  • Anna Ter-Martirosyan
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    This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes affect the economic cycle only through their impact on fiscal policy. Once fiscal policy changes are removed, oil price shocks do not have a significant independent effect on the economic cycle.

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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22434
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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/253.

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    Length: 21
    Date of creation: 01 Nov 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/253
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    1. Ravn, M.O., 1996. "Permanent and transitory shocks, and the UK business cycle," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9627, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    2. Bankim Chadha & Eswar Prasad, 1993. "Interpreting the Cyclical Behavior of Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 266-298, June.
    3. C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries; Some Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Francesco Caselli, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service; Some Estimates for OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 98/55, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Antonio Spilimbergo, 2005. "Measuring the Performance of Fiscal Policy in Russia," IMF Working Papers 05/241, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Finn E. Kydland & Calos E.J.M.Zarazaga, 1997. "Is the business cycle of Argentina "different?"," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 21-36.
    7. Kaiser, Regina & Maravall, Agustin, 2005. "Combining filter design with model-based filtering (with an application to business-cycle estimation)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 691-710.
    8. Alfredo Baldini, 2005. "Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles in an Oil-Producing Economy; The Case of Venezuela," IMF Working Papers 05/237, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Ardagna, Silvia & Caselli, Francesco & Lane, Timothy, 2004. "Fiscal discipline and the cost of public dept service: some estiames for OECD countries," Working Paper Series 0411, European Central Bank.
    10. Francis Y. Kumah & John Matovu, 2005. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Oddson Fiscal Performance," IMF Working Papers 05/171, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    12. Lane, Philip R, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 89-108, Spring.
    13. Blejer, Mario I & Cheasty, Adrienne, 1991. "The Measurement of Fiscal Deficits: Analytical and Methodological Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1644-78, December.
    14. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
    15. Emmanuel Saez, 2002. "Direct or Indirect Tax Instruments for Redistribution: Short-run versus Long-run," NBER Working Papers 8833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge Roldos, 1997. "Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?," IMF Working Papers 97/9, International Monetary Fund.
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