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Trade Elasticities in the Middle East and Central Asia; What is the Role of Oil?

  • Andreas Billmeier
  • Dalia S Hakura

The analysis in this paper suggests that import and export volume elasticities are markedly lower in oil-exporting Middle East and Central Asian countries than in non-oil countries in the region. A key implication of this finding is that a real appreciation of the exchange rate in oil-exporting countries would achieve little in terms of expenditure switching: an appreciation does not boost imports and non-oil exports constitute only a small share of GDP and total trade in these countries. Therefore, while a real appreciation lowers the current account surplus of oil-exporting countries through valuation effects, the contribution to lowering global imbalances may be more limited.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/216.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/216
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  1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  2. G. Russell Kincaid & Martin Fetherston & Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 2001. "Methodology for Current Account and Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 209, International Monetary Fund.
  3. repec:pal:imfstp:v:45:y:1998:i:2:p:236-268 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Wei, Shang-jin & Parsley, David, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Scholarly Articles 10494212, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  5. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
  6. Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade; Evidence From Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 94/140, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  8. Jaewoo Lee, 1997. "The Response Of Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Market Concentration In A Small Economy: The Evidence From Korea," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 142-145, February.
  9. Reinhart, Carmen, 1994. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade," MPRA Paper 13708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Campa, Jose M. & Goldberg, Linda S., 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: A macro or micro phenomenon?," IESE Research Papers D/475, IESE Business School.
  11. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
  12. Hamid Faruqee & Dalia S Hakura & Ehsan U. Choudhri, 2002. "Explaining the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Different Prices," IMF Working Papers 02/224, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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