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House Price Developments in Europe; A Comparison


  • Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers
  • Angana Banerji
  • Haiyan Shi
  • Willy W. Hoffmaister


House prices in Europe have shown diverging trends, and this paper seeks to explain these differences by analyzing three groups of countries: the "fast lane", the average performers, and the slow movers. Price movements in the first two groups are found to be driven mostly by income and trends in user costs, and housing markets in these countries seem relatively more susceptible to adverse developments in fundamentals. Real house price declines among the slow movers are harder to explain, although ample supply, low home ownership, and less complete mortgage markets are likely factors. The impact of macroeconomic, prudential and structural policies on housing markets can be large and should be a factor in policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Angana Banerji & Haiyan Shi & Willy W. Hoffmaister, 2008. "House Price Developments in Europe; A Comparison," IMF Working Papers 08/211, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/211

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Y. Mathä & Alessandro Porpiglia & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2014. "Wealth differences across borders and the effect of real estate price dynamics: Evidence from two household surveys," BCL working papers 90, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    2. Theodore Panagiotidis & Panagiotis Printzis, 2016. "On the macroeconomic determinants of the housing market in Greece: a VECM approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 387-409, July.
    3. Mathä, Thomas Y. & Porpiglia, Alessandro & Ziegelmeyer, Michael, 2017. "Household wealth in the euro area: The importance of intergenerational transfers, homeownership and house price dynamics," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-12.
    4. Samya Beidas-Strom & Weicheng Lian & Ashwaq Maseeh, 2009. "The Housing Cycle in Emerging Middle Eastern Economies and its Macroeconomic Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 09/288, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ciarlone, Alessio, 2011. "Housing wealth effect in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 399-417.
    6. Oestmann Marco & Bennöhr Lars, 2015. "Determinants of house price dynamics. What can we learn from search engine data?," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 99-127, April.
    7. repec:voj:journl:v:64:y:2017:i:1:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Christophe André, 2010. "A Bird's Eye View of OECD Housing Markets," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 746, OECD Publishing.
    9. Alessio Ciarlone, 2015. "House price cycles in emerging economies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 17-52, March.
    10. repec:tur:wpaper:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Setzer, Ralph & van den Noord, Paul & Wolff, Guntram B., 2011. "Heterogeneity in money holdings across euro area countries: The role of housing," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 764-780.
    12. Alessio Ciarlone, 2012. "Wealth effects in emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 843, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Szarowska, Irena, 2013. "Can tax policy co-cause the crisis?," MPRA Paper 59780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Thomas Y. Mathä & Alessandro Porpiglia & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2014. "Wealth differences across borders and the effect of real estate price dynamics: Evidence from two household surveys," BCL working papers 90, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    15. Thomas Hemmelgarn & Gaetan Nicodeme & Ernesto Zangari, 2011. "The Role of Housing Tax Provisions in the 2008 Financial Crisis," Taxation Papers 27, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    16. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2010. "Real estate prices and bank stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1129-1138, June.
    17. Ferrara, L. & Vigna, O., 2009. "Cyclical relationships between GDP and housing market in France: Facts and factors at play," Working papers 268, Banque de France.

    More about this item


    Economic indicators; Economic models; Europe; Demand; Population; Fiscal policy; Housing prices; Monetary policy; Interest rates; Supply; Taxation; Housing markets; mortgage; mortgage interest; property tax; home ownership;

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