Original Sin and Procylical Fiscal Policy; Two Sides of the Same Coin?
The paper develops a simple model of sovereign debt where default both through direct repudiation and through inflation are possible and give rise to (endogenous) constraints on the currency composition and the level of public debt. This set up allows to show that procyclicality of fiscal policy in EMEs can arise as a by-product of the "original sin" and both can be explained by the presence of weak monetary institutions which cannot commit to price stability. The paper suggests that, as monetary institutions in EMEs strengthen, the "original sin" would fade away and the cyclical properties of fiscal policy would improve.
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NBER Working Papers
10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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5558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2003. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters," NBER Working Papers 10036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March.
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