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Stress Testing at the IMF


  • Mark Swinburne
  • Stéphanie Marie Stolz
  • Marina Moretti


For almost a decade, the IMF has been using stress tests to identify vulnerabilities across institutions that could undermine the stability of a country's financial system. This working paper focuses on the IMF's experience with stress testing in the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). It provides background on the nature of an FSAP and the role of macro stress testing within it. It also describes how the methodology of stress testing in FSAPs has been evolving and what are fairly common approaches now being used. Finally, it discusses the main strengths and challenges for future development of macro stress testing in FSAPs and provides an overview of stress testing practice in European FSAPs.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Swinburne & Stéphanie Marie Stolz & Marina Moretti, 2008. "Stress Testing at the IMF," IMF Working Papers 08/206, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/206

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Matthew T Jones & Graham L Slack, 2004. "Stress Testing Financial Systems; What to Do When the Governor Calls," IMF Working Papers 04/127, International Monetary Fund.
    2. C. A. E. Goodhart & Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Boris Hofmann, 2006. "Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 06/223, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Srobona Mitra & Li L Ong, 2007. "Contagion Risk in the International Banking System and Implications for London As a Global Financial Center," IMF Working Papers 07/74, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Segoviano, Miguel A., 2006. "Conditional probability of default methodology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24512, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Andrea M. Maechler & Alexander F. Tieman, 2009. "The Real Effects of Financial Sector Risk," IMF Working Papers 09/198, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Miguel Segoviano, 2006. "Consistent Information Multivariate Density Optimizing Methodology," FMG Discussion Papers dp557, Financial Markets Group.
    7. Li L Ong & Martin Cihak, 2007. "Estimating Spillover Risk Among Large EU Banks," IMF Working Papers 07/267, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Kexue Liu & Jean Salvati & Renzo G Avesani & Alin T Mirestean, 2006. "Review and Implementation of Credit Risk Models of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP)," IMF Working Papers 06/134, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Dale F. Gray & James P Walsh, 2008. "Factor Model for Stress-testing with a Contingent Claims Model of the Chilean Banking System," IMF Working Papers 08/89, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Nigeria; Publication of Financial Sector Assessment Program Documentation––Technical Note on Stress Testing," IMF Staff Country Reports 13/141, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Francisco Nadal De Simone & Franco Stragiotti, 2010. "Market and Funding Liquidity Stress Testing of the Luxembourg Banking Sector," BCL working papers 45, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    3. Rasmus Kattai, 2010. "Credit risk model for the Estonian banking sector," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-01, Bank of Estonia, revised 04 Feb 2010.
    4. Basu, Sanjay, 2011. "Comparing simulation models for market risk stress testing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 329-339, August.
    5. Darne, O. & Levy-Rueff, O. & Pop, A., 2013. "Calibrating Initial Shocks in Bank Stress Test Scenarios: An Outlier Detection Based Approach," Working papers 426, Banque de France.
    6. Havrylchyk, Olena, 2010. "A macroeconomic credit risk model for stress testing the South African banking sector," MPRA Paper 21639, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Man Cho, 2009. "Managing Mortgage Credit Risk: What Went Wrong With the Subprime and Alt-A Markets?," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 295-324.
    8. Solntsev, O. & Mamonov, M. & Pestova, A. & Magomedova, Z., 2011. "Experience in Developing Early Warning System for Financial Crises and the Forecast of Russian Banking Sector Dynamic in 2012," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 12, pages 41-76.
    9. Ventsislav Hristev, 2014. "Bank Stress-Testing Lessons from Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 92-109, December.


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