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Impact of Macroeconomic, Political, and Institutional Factorson the Structure of Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries

  • Anastasia Guscina
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    Debt crises that have shaken Latin America, Asia, and Russia have brought an increasing attention to the structure of debt in emerging market countries. Using the newly released Jeanne-Guscina EM Government Debt Database 2006 this paper empirically explores the role of macroeconomic, political, and institutional factors in determining the structure of government debt. Results show that unstable macroeconomic environment, poor quality institutions, and uncertain political climate hinder the development of domestic debt market. Moreover, such instability shifts the debt structure away from long-term local currency fixed rate debt towards short-term debt or to debt indexed to foreign currency, short-term interest rates or inflation. Original sin seems to be on the way out, as more and more countries are issuing local currency debt at longer maturities-which can be explained by successful macroeconomic stabilization policies and lessons learned from the debt crises.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/205.

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    Length: 43
    Date of creation: 01 Aug 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/205
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    1. Claessens, Stijn & Klingebiel, Daniela & Schmukler, Sergio, 2003. "Government Bonds in Domestic and Foreign Currency: The Role of Macroeconomic and Institutional Factors," CEPR Discussion Papers 3789, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Goldfajn, Ilan, 2000. "Public Debt Indexation and Denomination: The Case of Brazil," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 43-56, February.
    3. Bohn, Henning, 1988. "Why do we have nominal government debt?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 127-140, January.
    4. S M Ali Abbas & Jakob E Christensen, 2010. "The Role of Domestic Debt Markets in Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Low-Income Countries and Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 209-255, April.
    5. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2007. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," NBER Working Papers 13076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Morris Goldstein & Philip Turner, 2004. "Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 373, December.
    7. Anastasia Guscina & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries; A New Data Set," IMF Working Papers 06/98, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mehl, Arnaud & Reynaud, Julien, 2005. "The determinants of ‘domestic’ original sin in emerging market economies," Working Paper Series 0560, European Central Bank.
    9. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2008. "Liquidity Insurance in a Financially Dollarized Economy," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 185-218 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank.
    11. Michael Kumhof & Evan Tanner, 2005. "Government Debt; A Key Role in Financial Intermediation," IMF Working Papers 05/57, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo, 2003. "On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 957-990, December.
    13. Bevilaqua, Alfonso S. & Garcia, Marcio G. P., 2000. "Debt management in Brazil : evaluation of the Real Plan and challenges ahead," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2402, The World Bank.
    14. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock, 2003. "Diversification, original sin, and international bond portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 755, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521605076 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521843898 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2003. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters," NBER Working Papers 10036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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