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Impact of Macroeconomic, Political, and Institutional Factors on the Structure of Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries

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  • Anastasia Guscina

Abstract

Debt crises that have shaken Latin America, Asia, and Russia have brought an increasing attention to the structure of debt in emerging market countries. Using the newly released Jeanne-Guscina EM Government Debt Database 2006 this paper empirically explores the role of macroeconomic, political, and institutional factors in determining the structure of government debt. Results show that unstable macroeconomic environment, poor quality institutions, and uncertain political climate hinder the development of domestic debt market. Moreover, such instability shifts the debt structure away from long-term local currency fixed rate debt towards short-term debt or to debt indexed to foreign currency, short-term interest rates or inflation. Original sin seems to be on the way out, as more and more countries are issuing local currency debt at longer maturities-which can be explained by successful macroeconomic stabilization policies and lessons learned from the debt crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Anastasia Guscina, 2008. "Impact of Macroeconomic, Political, and Institutional Factors on the Structure of Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/205, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/205
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    Cited by:

    1. Dennis Essers & Hans J. Blommestein & Danny Cassimon & Perla Ibarlucea Flores, 2016. "Local Currency Bond Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Stock-Taking Exercise and Analysis of Key Drivers," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 1167-1194, May.
    2. Sun, Lixin, 2015. "China’s Debt: Structure, Determinants and Sustainability," MPRA Paper 68548, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2015.
    3. Giovanna Bua & Juan Pradelli & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "Domestic public debt in low-income countries: trends and structure," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 85, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    4. Natia KUTIVADZE, 2011. "Public debt and financial development," Departmental Working Papers 2011-13, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    5. Marijana Ivanov & Marina Tkalec & Maruška Vizek, 2011. "The Determinants of Financial Euroization in a Post-Transition Country: Do Threshold Effects Matter?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(3), pages 230-251, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging markets; Financial crisis; Financial stability; Financial institutions; Domestic debt; Inflation; Government debt; Interest rates; Political economy; Original Sin; Debt Structure; foreign currency; debt market;

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