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Spillovers to Ireland

  • Daniel Kanda
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    This paper discusses Ireland's trade and financial linkages with key partner countries, and uses a vector autoregression to examine the impact of shocks to partner country GDP and shocks to Irish competitiveness on Irish GDP. Two main findings are that shocks to U.S. GDP have a larger impact on Irish GDP than shocks to the euro area or the U.K. Also, the share of the variance of Irish GDP explained by shocks to competitiveness rises with the forecast horizon, suggesting that past erosion of competitiveness may yet have a more substantial impact on economic activity.

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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=21497
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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/2.

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    Length: 20
    Date of creation: 01 Jan 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/2
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    1. Marianne Baxter & Michael Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    3. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
    4. C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Concordance in business cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. Robert B. Litterman & Laurence Weiss, 1983. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 1077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Ireland; Financial System Stability Assessment Update," IMF Staff Country Reports 06/292, International Monetary Fund.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Imbs, Jean, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 3779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
    10. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56.
    11. repec:rus:hseeco:123092 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Patrick Honohan & Brendan Walsh, 2002. "Catching Up with the Leaders: The Irish Hare," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(1), pages 1-78.
    13. Lopez, J. Humberto, 1997. "The power of the ADF test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 5-10, November.
    14. repec:rus:hseeco:123030 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Srobona Mitra & Elena Duggar, 2007. "External Linkages and Contagion Risk in Irish Banks," IMF Working Papers 07/44, International Monetary Fund.
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