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Spillovers to Ireland

  • Daniel Kanda
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    This paper discusses Ireland's trade and financial linkages with key partner countries, and uses a vector autoregression to examine the impact of shocks to partner country GDP and shocks to Irish competitiveness on Irish GDP. Two main findings are that shocks to U.S. GDP have a larger impact on Irish GDP than shocks to the euro area or the U.K. Also, the share of the variance of Irish GDP explained by shocks to competitiveness rises with the forecast horizon, suggesting that past erosion of competitiveness may yet have a more substantial impact on economic activity.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/2.

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    Length: 20
    Date of creation: 01 Jan 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/2
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    1. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Terrones, Marco E., 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IZA Discussion Papers 702, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Ireland: Financial System Stability Assessment Update," IMF Staff Country Reports 06/292, International Monetary Fund.
    3. C. John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 2000. "Concordance in Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 00/37, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56.
    5. Robert B. Litterman & Laurence Weiss, 1983. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 1077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Lopez, J. Humberto, 1997. "The power of the ADF test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 5-10, November.
    7. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement: A Robust Analysis," NBER Working Papers 10725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    9. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1994. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1085, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. repec:rus:hseeco:123092 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Srobona Mitra & Elena Duggar, 2007. "External Linkages and Contagion Risk in Irish Banks," IMF Working Papers 07/44, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Patrick Honohan & Brendan Walsh, 2002. "Catching Up with the Leaders: The Irish Hare," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(1), pages 1-78.
    13. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. repec:rus:hseeco:123030 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
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