The Impact of Oil-Related Incomeon the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria
This paper examines the impact of oil-related income, among other fundamentals, on the equilibrium real effective exchange rate (ERER) in Syria. After reviewing the evolution of the Syrian multiple exchange rate regime since 1960 and assessing alternative measures for the exchange rate, the paper analyzes the impact of oil-related income on the ERER in the context of a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model. The analysis concludes that ERER appreciates with higher oil-related income, productivity and net foreign assets, but, at odds with the conventional wisdom, depreciates with higher government expenditures given that an increase in expenditures usually translates into higher imports and weaker current account position. In light of the projected real shocks associated with the depletion of oil and the change in other fundamentals in the context of the ongoing transition to a market economy, a more flexible regime would serve Syria better in the future.
|Date of creation:||01 Aug 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Allan W. Gregory, 1991.
"Testing for Cointegration in Linear Quadratic Models,"
811, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Gregory, Allan W, 1994. "Testing for Cointegration in Linear Quadratic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 347-60, July.
- Ronald MacDonald & Luca Ricci, 2001.
"PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect: the Role of the Distribution Sector,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
442, CESifo Group Munich.
- Ronald MacDonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2001. "PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect; The Role of the Distribution Sector," IMF Working Papers 01/38, International Monetary Fund.
- R. Macdonald & L. Ricci, 2003. "PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect: The Role of the DistributionSector," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 81, Netherlands Central Bank.
- C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin & Alasdair Scott, 1999.
"Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices,"
IMF Working Papers
99/155, International Monetary Fund.
- Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Balázs �gert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006.
"Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues ,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, 04.
- Balázs Égert, & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp793, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Égert, Balázs & Halpern, László & MacDonald, Ronald, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," CEPR Discussion Papers 4809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in T ransition Economies: T aking Stock of the Issues," Working Papers 106, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Ravn, Morten O & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2007.
"Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6541, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Morten O. Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2007. "Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 13328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engel, Charles, 1993.
"Real exchange rates and relative prices : An empirical investigation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 35-50, August.
- Charles Engel, 1992. "Real Exchange Rates and Relative Prices: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 4231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
- Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
- Tommaso Monacelli, 1999.
"Into the Mussa Puzzle: Monetary Policy Regimes and the Real Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
437, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 15 Sep 2000.
- Monacelli, Tommaso, 2004. "Into the Mussa puzzle: monetary policy regimes and the real exchange rate in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 191-217, January.
- Martin Petri & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2006. "To Smooth or Not to Smooth; The Impact of Grants and Remittanceson the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Jordan," IMF Working Papers 06/257, International Monetary Fund.
- Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
- Juan Zalduendo, 2006. "Determinants of Venezuela'S Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 06/74, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.