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What Goes Up Must Come Down? House Price Dynamics in the United States

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  • Vladimir Klyuev

Abstract

This paper estimates the evolution of equilibrium real home prices in the United States and finds that despite recent declines, single-family homes remained 8 to 20 percent overvalued as of the first quarter of 2008. In the short run, the gap between actual and equilibrium prices does not exert powerful influence over price dynamics. Instead, that dynamics is driven by the inventory-to-sales ratio and by foreclosure starts in a highly inertial relationship. Taken together, this implies that price declines are likely to continue, including past the point where overvaluation is eliminated. The paper also finds that from the early 1990s onwards changes in regional home prices have been more synchronized than before, and that the recent movements in the average price index have reflected a nationwide housing boom, followed by a nationwide housing bust.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Klyuev, 2008. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? House Price Dynamics in the United States," IMF Working Papers 08/187, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/187
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua Gallin, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 417-438, September.
    2. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
    3. Calvin Schnure, 2005. "Boom-Bust Cycles in Housing; The Changing Role of Financial Structure," IMF Working Papers 05/200, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Dennis R. Capozza & Charlotte Mack & Patric H. Hendershott & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "The Determinants of House Price Dynamics," ERES eres2002_106, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Hiebert, Paul, 2011. "Do house price developments spillover across euro area countries? Evidence from a global VAR," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 299-314.
    2. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Andreja Lenarčič & Barbara Roffia, 2015. "An alternative method for identifying booms and busts in the Euro area housing market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 499-518, January.
    3. Conefrey, Thomas & Whelan, Karl, 2012. "Supply, Demand and Prices in the US Housing Market," Research Technical Papers 08/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Nélson Leitão Paes & Cássio Da Nóbrega Besarria & Marcelo Eduardo Alves Da Silva, 2018. "Bubbles In The Prices Of Housing? Evidence To Brazil?S Economy," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 118, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. P. Arestis & A.R. González, 2014. "Modelling the housing market in OECD countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 131-153, March.
    6. Hiebert, Paul & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2009. "Do house price developments spill over across euro area countries? Evidence from a Global VAR," Working Paper Series 1026, European Central Bank.
    7. Pan, Huiran & Wang, Chun, 2013. "House prices, bank instability, and economic growth: Evidence from the threshold model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1720-1732.
    8. Luis M. Cubeddu & Camilo E Tovar Mora & Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "Latin America; Vulnerabilities Under Construction?," IMF Working Papers 12/193, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Chan Lily & Ng Heng Tiong & Rishi Ramchand, 2012. "A cluster analysis approach to examining Singapore’s property market," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 43-53 Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2014. "Error correction dynamics of house prices: An equilibrium benchmark," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 75-95.
    11. KARGI, Bilal, 2013. "Konut Piyasası ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Zaman Serileri Analizi (2000-2012)
      [Housing market and economic growth relation: time series analysis over Turkey (2000-2012)]
      ," MPRA Paper 55694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Smith, Scott & Fuller, Debra & Bogin, Alex & Polkovnichenko, Nataliya & Weiher, Jesse, 2016. "Countercyclical capital regime revisited: Tests of robustness," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 50-78.
    13. Vílchez, Diego, 2015. "Evaluando las Dinámicas de Precios en el Sector Inmobiliario: Evidencia para Perú," Working Papers 2015-013, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    14. Evridiki Tsounta, 2009. "Is the Canadian Housing Market Overvalued? A Post-crisis Assessment," IMF Working Papers 09/235, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Diego Vílchez, "undated". "Assessing the House Price Dynamics in Lima," IHEID Working Papers 09-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    16. Alessio Ciarlone, 2015. "House price cycles in emerging economies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 17-52, March.
    17. Kristine Gevorgyan, 2015. "Analysis of Price Bubbles on the Czech Real Estate Market," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2015(5), pages 45-63.
    18. Seoung Hwan Suh & Kabsung Kim, 2014. "Global financial crisis and early warning system of Korean housing market," Chapters,in: The Global Financial Crisis and Housing, chapter 4, pages 62-81 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Deniz O Igan & Prakash Loungani, 2012. "Global Housing Cycles," IMF Working Papers 12/217, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Scott Smith & Jesse Weiher, 2012. "Countercyclical Capital Regime – A Proposed Design and Empirical Evaluation," FHFA Staff Working Papers 12-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    21. repec:nbb:ecrart:y:2017:m:june:i:i:p:61-77 is not listed on IDEAS

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