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Taylor Rule Under Financial Instability

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Cihak
  • Ales Bulir
  • Sofía Bauducco

Abstract

This paper contributes to the analysis of monetary policy in the face of financial instability. In particular, we extend the standard new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky prices to include a financial system. Our simulations suggest that if financial instability affects output and inflation with a lag and if the central bank has privileged information about credit risk, monetary policy that responds instantly to increased credit risk can trade off more output and inflation instability today for a faster return to the trend than a policy that follows the simple Taylor rule with only the contemporaneous output gap and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Cihak & Ales Bulir & Sofía Bauducco, 2008. "Taylor Rule Under Financial Instability," IMF Working Papers 08/18, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/18
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brousseau, Vincent & Detken, Carsten, 2001. "Monetary policy and fears of financial instability," Working Paper Series 0089, European Central Bank.
    2. Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000. "Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-667, August.
    3. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Issues in Adopting DSGE Models for Use in the Policy Process," Working Papers 2006/6, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    4. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
    5. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    6. Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 17-51.
    8. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Lianfa Li, 2008. "Do Capital Adequacy Requirements Matter For Monetary Policy?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 643-659, October.
    9. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    10. Claudio E. V. Borio, 2006. "Monetary and prudential policies at a crossroads? New challenges in the new century," BIS Working Papers 216, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
    12. Galí, Jordi, 2002. "New Perspectives on Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Boorman, Jack & Lane, Timothy & Schulze-Ghattas, Marianne & Bulir, Ales & Ghosh, Atish R. & Hamann, Javier & Mourmouras, Alex & Phillips, Steven, 2000. "Managing financial crises: the experience in East Asia," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-67, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gianfranco Zampese, 2017. "Taylor Rule and Financial Instability," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1757, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    2. Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013. "Time-varying monetary-policy rules and financial stress: Does financial instability matter for monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 117-138.
    3. Martin, Christopher & Milas, Costas, 2013. "Financial crises and monetary policy: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 654-661.
    4. Dale F. Gray & Carlos J. García & Leonardo Luna & Jorge E. Restrepo, 2011. "Incorporating Financial Sector Risk Into Monetary Policy Models: Application to Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 6, pages 159-197 Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Bořek Vašíček, 2011. "Time Varying Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stress," Chapters,in: Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision, chapter 10 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2013. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: A Reduced-Form Model for the EURO Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 62-81, March.
    7. Claudiu T Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Dominique Pépin, 2013. "Financial instability and ECB monetary policy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 388-400.
    8. Fedorova, E. & Mukhin, A. & Dovzhenko, S., 2016. "Modeling Rules of Monetary Policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation with the Financial Stress Index," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 84-105.
    9. repec:ukb:journl:y:2017:i:239:p:6-27 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Financial stability; Monetary policy; Inflation; monetary policy rule; financial instability; DSGE models; central bank; financial sector;

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