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Vacation Over; Implications for the Caribbean of Opening U.S.-Cuba tourism

  • Rafael Romeu
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    An opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean''s tourism industry. This study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling for natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors, the results show that a hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals. Neighboring destinations would lose the implicit protection the current restriction affords them, and Cuba would gain market share, but this would be partially offset in the short-run by the redistribution of non-U.S. tourists currently in Cuba. The results also suggest that Caribbean countries have in general not lowered their dependency on U.S. tourists, leaving them vulnerable to this potential change.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/162.

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    Length: 62
    Date of creation: 01 Jul 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/162
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    1. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 151-175, May.
    2. Yang Dean, 2008. "Coping with Disaster: The Impact of Hurricanes on International Financial Flows, 1970-2002," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-45, June.
    3. Rafael Romeu, 2005. "Why Are Asset Markets Modeled Successfully, But Not Their Dealers?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 1.
    4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
    5. Cukierman, Alex, 1980. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment under Risk Neutrality with Endogenous Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 462-75, June.
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