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Foreign Reserve Adequacy in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper looks at the question of adequacy of reserves in sub-Saharan African countries in light of the shocks faced by these countries. Literature on optimal reserves so far has not paid attention to the particular shocks facing low-income countries. We use a two-good endowment economy model facing terms of trade and aid shocks to derive the optimal level of reserves by comparing the cost of holding reserves with their benefits as an insurance against a shock. We find that the optimal level of reserves depends upon the size of these shocks, their probability, and the output cost associated with them,

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Foreign Reserve Adequacy in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 08/150, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/150
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 2004. "International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 569-591, July.
    2. Philip Lane & Dominic Burke, 2001. "The Empirics of Foreign Reserves," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 423-434, October.
    3. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    4. Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu Bussière, 1999. "External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies; How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 99/88, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Yeonho & Rhee, Youngseop, 2007. "International reserves management and capital mobility in a volatile world: Policy considerations and a case study of Korea," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Pablo García & Claudio Soto, 2006. "Large Hoardings of International Reserves: Are They Worth It?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Ricardo Caballero & César Calderón & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Sc (ed.), External Vulnerability and Preventive Policies, edition 1, volume 10, chapter 6, pages 171-206 Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Anubha Dhasmana, 2008. "Welfare Gains of Aid Indexation in Small Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 08/101, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 99-118, Fall.
    9. Ben-Bassat, Avraham & Gottlieb, Daniel, 1992. "Optimal international reserves and sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 345-362, November.
    10. Frenkel, Jacob A & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1981. "Optimal International Reserves: A Stochastic Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(362), pages 507-514, June.
    11. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    12. M. Nowak & Ketil Hviding & Luca A Ricci, 2004. "Can Higher Reserves Help Reduce Exchange Rate Volatility?," IMF Working Papers 04/189, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wendell A. Samuel & Emilio Pineda & Mario Dehesa, 2009. "Optimal Reserves in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 09/77, International Monetary Fund.
    2. GBANDI, Tchapo, 2016. "Ratios d’adéquation et fonction de demande des réserves de change dans les pays de l’UEMOA
      [Title: Foreign reserve adequacy ratios and reserve demand function in WAEMU countries]
      ," MPRA Paper 82145, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Jun 2016.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "International Reserves in Low Income Countries; Have they Served As Buffers?," IMF Working Papers 12/7, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Era Dabla-Norris & Jun I Kim & Kazuko Shirono, 2011. "Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low-Income Countries; A Cost-Benefit Analysis," IMF Working Papers 11/249, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balance of payments; Foreign exchange reserves; Reserves adequacy; Regional shocks; Sub-Saharan Africa; Balance of Payments Crises; Terms of Trade and Aid Shocks; terms of trade; terms of trade shock; trade shock; tradable goods; terms of trade shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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