Fiscal Positions in Latin America; Have they Really Improved?
Fiscal performance in Latin America looks much improved this decade compared to the 1980s or 1990s. Is this a "structural" improvement or likely to be transitory? This paper answers this question by estimating the relationship between non-commodity revenue and the economic cycle, and evaluating commodity revenues using alternative medium term commodity price projections. The main result is that structural revenues have indeed improved as a share of GDP, and structural primary balances are currently in surplus in many Latin American countries. However, the magnitude of these improvements is uncertain, in part due to uncertainty about the commodity price outlook.
|Date of creation:||01 May 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Corbae, D. & Ouliaris, S. & Phillips, P.C.B., 1997.
"Band Spectral Regression with Trending Data,"
97-09, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
- Ignacio Lozano & Jorge Toro, 2007.
"Fiscal Policy Throughout the Cycle: The Colombian Experience,"
BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA
002730, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Ignacio Lozano & Jorge Toro, . "Fiscal Policy Throughout the Cycle: The Colombian Experience," Borradores de Economia 434, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Luiz de Mello & Diego Moccero, 2006. "Brazil's Fiscal Stance during 1995-2005: The Effect of Indebtedness on Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 485, OECD Publishing.
- Marcel, Mario, 2001.
"Balance Estructural del Gobierno Central. Metodología y Estimaciones para Chile
[Structural Bazlance of Central Government. Methodology and estimates for Chile]," MPRA Paper 43338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995.
"Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series,"
NBER Working Papers
5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Robert P. Hagemann, 1999. "The Structural Budget Balance; The Imf's Methodology," IMF Working Papers 99/95, International Monetary Fund.
- Enrique Alberola & José M. Montero, 2006.
"Debt sustainability and procyclical fical policies in Latin America,"
Banco de Espa�a Working Papers
0611, Banco de Espa�a.
- Enrique Alberola & Manuel Montero, 2006. "Debt Sustainability and Procyclical Fiscal Policies in Latin America," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
- Victor Duarte Lledo, 2005. "Tax Systems Under Fiscal Adjustment; A Dynamic CGE Analysis of the Brazilian Tax Reform," IMF Working Papers 05/142, International Monetary Fund.
- Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
- Nigel Andrew Chalk, 2002. "Structural Balances and All That; Which Indicators to Use in Assessing Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 02/101, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.