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Trade Sensitivity to Exchange Rates in the Context of Intra-Industry Trade

  • Yoko Oguro
  • Kyoji Fukao
  • Yougesh Khatri

This paper theoretically and empirically investigates export sensitivity to exchange rates in the context of intra-industry trade (IIT). It is assumed that more IIT implies a smaller elasticity of substitution among differentiated products and vice versa. The model presented suggests the gap in production costs between two countries has an influence on IIT as well. Industry-level pane regressions of thirty-eight trading pairs provide strong empirical support for the idea that the exchange rate sensitivity of exports declines in concert with the extent of ITT. An obvious policy implication is that the effectiveness of exchange rates in addressing trade imbalances will diminish as the extent of IIT increases.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/134.

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Length: 20
Date of creation: 01 May 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/134
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  1. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
  2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 1999. "Bilateral J-Curve between U.S. and her trading partners," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 156-165, March.
  3. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1975. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 64, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  4. Lionel Fontagné & Michaël Freudenberg & Nicolas Peridy, 1997. "Trade Patterns Inside the Single Market," Working Papers 1997-07, CEPII research center.
  5. Rose, Andrew K., 1991. "The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 301-316, May.
  6. Jonathan Eaton & Akiko Tamura, 1995. "Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns," NBER Working Papers 4758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Goswami, Gour Gobinda, 2004. "Exchange rate sensitivity of Japan's bilateral trade flows," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
  8. James A. Brander & Paul Krugman, 1983. "A 'Reciprocal Dumping' Model of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 1194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Kyoji Fukao & Hikari Ishido & Keiko Ito, 2003. "Vertical Intra-Industry Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in East Asia," Discussion papers 03001, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  10. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May.
  11. Menzie D. Chinn, 2003. "Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined," NBER Working Papers 9521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Nadenichek, Jon, 2000. "The Japan-US trade imbalance: a real business cycle perspective," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 255-271, September.
  13. Greenaway, David & Hine, Robert C & Milner, Chris, 1995. "Vertical and Horizontal Intra-industry Trade: A Cross Industry Analysis for the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1505-18, November.
  14. Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "Incomes, Exchange Rates and the US Trade Deficit, Once Again," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 451-469, December.
  15. Yoko Oguro, 2007. "The Influence of Intra-Industry Trade on Export Sensitivity to Exchange Rates," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d07-222, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  16. Breuer, Janice Boucher & Clements, Leianne A., 2003. "The commodity composition of US-Japanese trade and the yen/dollar real exchange rate," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 307-330, August.
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