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Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates for Armenia and Georgia

  • Shuang Ding
  • Omar Al Shehabi

The significant real exchange rate appreciation in Armenia and Georgia since 2003, coupled with persistent current account deficits, raises the question of whether real exchange rates have become overvalued. This paper seeks to identify possible exchange rate misalignment by applying the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate approach, complemented by an analysis of the traditional competitiveness indicators. The results indicate an undervaluation of the Armenian dram and no significant misalignment of the Georgian lari in 2006.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/110.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/110
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  1. Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
  3. Kornélia Krajnyák & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1997. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Working Papers 97/149, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 0353, European Central Bank.
  5. Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Sandra Moatti, 2003. "Exchange Rate Management in Central Europe and the Debate on Exchange Rate Regimes," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 961-982.
  6. Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-71, November.
  7. Balázs �gert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, 04.
  8. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  9. Mohsin S. Khan & Ehsan U. Choudhri, 2004. "Real Exchange Rates In Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present?," IMF Working Papers 04/188, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Etienne B. Yehoue & Gilles J. Dufrénot, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: A Panel Co-Integration and Common Factor Analysis," IMF Working Papers 05/164, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Oomes, Nienke, 2005. "Maintaining competitiveness under equilibrium real appreciation: The case of Slovakia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 187-204, June.
  12. Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2007. "Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 546-569, June.
  14. Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," NBER Working Papers 11521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  16. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "Competitiveness in the Baltics in the Run-Up to EU Accession," IMF Staff Country Reports 03/114, International Monetary Fund.
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