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Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates for Armenia and Georgia

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  • Shuang Ding
  • Omar Al Shehabi

Abstract

The significant real exchange rate appreciation in Armenia and Georgia since 2003, coupled with persistent current account deficits, raises the question of whether real exchange rates have become overvalued. This paper seeks to identify possible exchange rate misalignment by applying the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate approach, complemented by an analysis of the traditional competitiveness indicators. The results indicate an undervaluation of the Armenian dram and no significant misalignment of the Georgian lari in 2006.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuang Ding & Omar Al Shehabi, 2008. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates for Armenia and Georgia," IMF Working Papers 08/110, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/110
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
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    7. Kornélia Krajnyák & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1998. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 309-362, June.
    8. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fakhri Hasanov, 2010. "The Impact of Real Oil Price on Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Case of Azerbaijan," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Ho-don Yan & Cheng-lang Yang, 2012. "Does an Undervalued Currency Merit Economic Growth? – Evidence from Taiwan," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(1), pages 37-57, March.
    3. Rimgailaite, Ramune, 2012. "Exchange rate modelling for Lithuania and Switzerland," MPRA Paper 43451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hasanov, Fakhri, 2009. "Analyzing price level in a booming economy: the case of Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 29555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Gan, Christopher & Ward, Bert & Ting, Su Ting & Cohen, David A., 2013. "An empirical analysis of China's equilibrium exchange rate: A co-integration approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 33-44.
    6. repec:bla:apacel:v:31:y:2017:i:1:p:39-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Brixiova Zuzana & Egert Balazs & Essid Thouraya Hadj Amor, 2014. "The Real Exchange Rate and External Competitiveness in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, April.
    8. repec:wsi:ceprxx:v:03:y:2014:i:02:n:s1793969014500101 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Hassan Suleiman & Zahid Muhammad, 2011. "The real exchange rate of an oil exporting economy: Empirical evidence from Nigeria," FIW Working Paper series 072, FIW.
    10. Fakhri, Hasanov & Khudayar, Hasanli, 2011. "Why had the Money Market Approach been irrelevant in explaining inflation in Azerbaijan during the rapid economic growth period?," MPRA Paper 29559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Volkhart Vincentz, 2008. "Trade Policy and Georgian Exports," Working Papers 272, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    12. Zuzana Brixiova & Balázs Égert & Thouraya Hadj Amor Essid, 2013. "Working Paper 187 - The Real Exchange Rate and External Competitiveness in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia," Working Paper Series 991, African Development Bank.
    13. Tonci Svilokos & Meri Suman Tolic, 2014. "Does Misaligned Currency Affect Economic Growth? – Evidence from Croatia," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 16(2), pages 29-58, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate appreciation; Current account deficits; Armenia; Georgia; equilibrium exchange rates; exchange rate; real exchange rate; exchange rates; current account balance; terms of trade;

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