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Flattening of the Phillips Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy

  • Dora M. Iakova
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    Over the past decade, inflation has become less responsive to domestic demand pressures in many industrial countries. This development has been attributed, in part, to globalization forces. A small macroeconomic model, estimated on UK data using Bayesian estimation, is used to analyze the monetary policy implications of this structural change. The focus is on the implications of a globalization-related flattening of the Phillips curve for the trade-off between inflation and output gap variability and for the efficient monetary policy response rule.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/76.

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    Length: 19
    Date of creation: 01 Apr 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/76
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    3. Galí, Jordi & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3346, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    8. Andrew T. Levin & Volker W. Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of simple monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Laurence Boone & Michel Juillard & Doug Laxton & Papa N'Diaye, 2002. "How Well Do Alternative Time-Varying Parameter Models of the NAIRU Help Policymakers Forecast Unemployment and Inflation in the OECD Countries?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 359, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Tommaso Monacelli, 1999. "Into the Mussa Puzzle: Monetary Policy Regimes and the Real Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 437, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 15 Sep 2000.
    11. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November.
    12. Frank Smets, 1998. "Output gap uncertainty: does it matter for the Taylor rule?," BIS Working Papers 60, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye & Douglas Laxton, 2002. "Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff: Some Evidence From 17 Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/220, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 06/80, International Monetary Fund.
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    16. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-86, September.
    17. Ashoka Mody & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2007. "Can Domestic Policies Influence Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 07/257, International Monetary Fund.
    18. King, Mervyn, 1997. "Changes in UK monetary policy: Rules and discretion in practice," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 81-97, June.
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