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Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources; Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections

  • Atish R. Ghosh
  • Juan Zalduendo
  • Manuela Goretti
  • Bikas Joshi
  • Alun H. Thomas

This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000?05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006?10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/70.

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Length: 44
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/70
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