Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resourcesâ€”Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections
This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000?05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006?10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results.
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Committee, Nobel Prize, 2000. "The Scientific Contributions of James Heckman and Daniel McFadden," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2000-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2002.
"IMF Programs: Who is Chosen and What Are the Effects?,"
NBER Working Papers
8951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2005. "IMF programs: Who is chosen and what are the effects?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1245-1269, October.
- Robert J Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2003. "IMF Programs: Who Is Chosen and What Are the Effects?," Departmental Working Papers 2003-09, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2004.
"Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have they Worked in Practice?,"
IMF Working Papers
04/52, International Monetary Fund.
- Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 5.
- Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2004. "Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, January.
- Arturo Estrella, 1997.
"A new measure of fit for equations with dichotomous dependent variables,"
9716, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
- Silvia Marchesi, 2001.
"Adoption of an IMF Programme and Debt Rescheduling. An Empirical Analysis,"
Development Working Papers
152, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
- Marchesi, Silvia, 2003. "Adoption of an IMF programme and debt rescheduling. An empirical analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 403-423, April.
- Marchesi, Silvia, 1999. "Adoption of an IMF Programme and Debt Rescheduling. An Empirical Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 542, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Robert Trudel, 2005. "Effects of Exchange Rate Regime on IMF Program Participation," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 22(6), pages 919-936, November.
- Filardo, Andrew J. & Gordon, Stephen F., 1998.
"Business cycle durations,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-123, July.
- Poirier, Dale J., 1980. "Partial observability in bivariate probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 209-217, February.
- Knight, Malcolm & Santaella, Julio A., 1997. "Economic determinants of IMF financial arrangements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 405-436, December.
- Dolton, P. J. & Makepeace, G. H., 1987. "Interpreting sample selection effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 373-379.
- Kenneth Train, 2003.
"Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation,"
Online economics textbooks,
SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number emetr2, March.
- Heckman, James J, 1979.
"Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error,"
Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
- Charalambos Christofides & Atish R. Ghosh & Uma Ramakrishnan & Alun H. Thomas & Laura Papi & Juan Zalduendo & Jun Il Kim, 2005. "The Design of IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Occasional Papers 241, International Monetary Fund.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Ayşe Y Evrensel, 2005. "IMF Programmes in Emerging Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(1), pages 4-22, March.
- Dubin, Jeffrey A & McFadden, Daniel L, 1984. "An Econometric Analysis of Residential Electric Appliance Holdings and Consumption," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 345-62, March.
- Eugenio Cerutti, 2007. "IMF Drawing Programs: Participation Determinants and Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 07/152, International Monetary Fund.
- Julio A. Santaella, 1996. "Stylized Facts before IMF-Supported Macroeconomic Adjustment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(3), pages 502-544, September.
- Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2005. "Which Variables Explain Decisions on IMF Credit? An Extreme Bounds Analysisï¿½," TWI Research Paper Series 13, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universitï¿½t Konstanz.
- Bird, Graham & Hussain, Mumtaz & Joyce, Joseph P., 2004. "Many happy returns? Recidivism and the IMF," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 231-251, March.
- Joyce, Joseph P., 1992. "The economic characteristics of IMF program countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 237-242, February.
- Przeworski, Adam & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2000. "The effect of IMF programs on economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 385-421, August.
- Jan-Egbert Sturm & Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan, 2005.
"Which Variables Explain Decisions On Imf Credit? An Extreme Bounds Analysis,"
Economics and Politics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17, pages 177-213, 07.
- Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Berger, Helge & de Haan, Jakob, 2004. "Which variables explain decisions on IMF credit? An extreme bounds analysis," Discussion Papers 2004/15, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985.
"Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.