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Do Economists’ and Financial Markets’ Perspectives on the New Members of the EU differ?

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  • Susan M Schadler
  • Pipat Luengnaruemitchai

Abstract

In the past several years, the ten new Central and Eastern European members of the European Union have enjoyed rapid growth but frequently alongside growing external imbalances. Economists have pointed to rising vulnerabilities, but markets compressed sovereign bond yields. This paper examines the evidence from the perspective of economists' vulnerability analysis and markets' pricing of sovereign bonds. It finds that spread are lower than can be explained by "fundamentals" and speculates on the causes and permanence of this yield compression.

Suggested Citation

  • Susan M Schadler & Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2007. "Do Economists’ and Financial Markets’ Perspectives on the New Members of the EU differ?," IMF Working Papers 07/65, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/65
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Manmohan S. Kumar & Jirí Jonáš & David Hauner, 2007. "Policy Credibility and Sovereign Credit; The Case of New EU Member States," IMF Working Papers 07/1, International Monetary Fund.
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    6. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2000. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 107-134 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2003. "Empirical determinants of emerging market economies' sovereign bond spreads," Bank of England working papers 205, Bank of England.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Comelli, Fabio, 2012. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads: Estimation and back-testing," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 598-625.
    2. Michael A. Stemmer, 2017. "Revisiting Finance and Growth in Transition Economies - A Panel Causality Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17022, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. Hoffmann Andreas, 2013. "The Euro as a Proxy for the Classical Gold Standard? Government Debt Financing and Political Commitment in Historical Perspective," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 41-61, November.
    4. Stephanie Prat, 2007. "The Relevance of Currency Mismatch Indicators: an Analysis Through Determinants of Emerging Market Spreads," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 111, pages 101-122.
    5. D Büttner & B. Hayo, 2012. "EMU-related news and financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(31), pages 4037-4053, November.
    6. Marcin, Piatkowski, 2009. "The Coming Golden Age of New Europe," MPRA Paper 19523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 531-550, October.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Vulnerabilities in Emerging Southeastern Europe—How Much Cause for Concern?," IMF Working Papers 07/236, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Herrmann, Sabine & Winkler, Adalbert, 2009. "Real convergence, financial markets, and the current account - Emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 100-123, August.
    10. Stefania Fabrizio & Daniel Leigh & Ashoka Mody, 2009. "The second transition: Eastern Europe in perspective," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 366, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    11. Julia Lendvai & Werner Roeger, 2010. "External deficits in the Baltics 1995 to 2007: Catching up or imbalances," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 398, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Dabrowski, Marek, 2010. "The global financial crisis: Lessons for European integration," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 38-54, March.
    13. Martin Èihák & Srobona Mitra, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and European Emerging Economies," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(6), pages 541-553, December.
    14. Martin Cihak & Wim Fonteyne, 2009. "Five Years After; European Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States," IMF Working Papers 09/68, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Klaus Regling & Servaas Deroose & Reinhard Felke & Paul Kutos, 2010. "The Euro After Its First Decade : Weathering the Financial Storm and Enlarging the Euro Area," Governance Working Papers 22817, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    16. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Euro Area Policies; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 07/259, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Bas B Bakker & Leslie Lipschitz, 2011. "Monetary Policy Challenges in the CESEE Region: Architecture for an Earthquake Zone," Chapters,in: Post-Crisis Growth and Integration in Europe, chapter 11 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Csontó, Balázs, 2014. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads and shifts in global market sentiment," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 58-74.
    19. Enrique Alberola & Luis Molina & Pedro del Río, 2012. "Boom-bust cycles, imbalances and discipline in Europe," Working Papers 1220, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    20. Susan Schadler, 2010. "Managing Large Capital Inflows: Taking Stock of International Experiences," Chapters,in: Managing Capital Flows, chapter 4 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Fabio Comelli, 2012. "Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads; Estimation and Back-testing," IMF Working Papers 12/212, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Regling, Klaus & Deroose, Servaas & Felke, Reinhard & Kutos, Paul, 2010. "The Euro After Its First Decade: Weathering the Financial Storm and Enlarging the Euro Area," ADBI Working Papers 205, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    23. Bas B. Bakker & Leslie Lipschitz, 2014. "Conventional and Insidious Macroeconomic Balance-Sheet Crises," IMF Working Papers 14/160, International Monetary Fund.

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