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Tax Reform and Debt Sustainability in Germany; An Assessment Using the Global Fiscal Model

  • Dennis P. J. Botman
  • Stephan Danninger

In 2005, the German government announced a far-reaching fiscal adjustment program. This paper uses the IMF’s Global Fiscal Model to study its impact and explores options for addressing long-term pressures from population aging. The growth effects of the planned VAT increase are likely modest, largely owing to the stimulating effect of other tax reductions. The reform will improve the long-term debt path but achieving fiscal sustainability requires further adjustment over the medium term. An additional package of expenditure restraint, entitlement reform, and tax-base broadening compares favorably to other adjustment options. Spillover effects to trading partners of these policies are modest.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/46.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/46
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  1. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
  2. Nicoletta Batini & Papa N'Diaye & Alessandro Rebucci, 2005. "The domestic and global impact of Japan’s policies for growth," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Michiel Evers & Ruud A. de Mooij & Daniel J. van Vuuren, 2006. "What explains the Variation in Estimates of Labour Supply Elasticities?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-017/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  4. Martin Werding & Anita Kaltschütz, 2005. "Modellrechnungen zur langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 17, December.
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