Modeling Inflation for Mali
This paper investigates how consumer price inflation is determined in Mali for 1979-2006 along three macroeconomic explanations: (1) monetarist theories, emphasizing the impact of excess money supply, (2) the structuralist hypothesis, stressing the impact of supply-side constraints, and (3) external theories, describing the effects of foreign transmission mechanisms on a small open economy. The analysis makes use of cointegration techniques and general-to-specific modeling. Average national rainfall, and to a lesser extent deviations from monetary and external sector equilibrium are found to be the main long-run determinants of inflation. The paper offers policy recommendations for controlling inflation in Mali.
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Empirical modeling of money demand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 295-315.
- Jayne, Thomas S. & Mukumbu, Mulinge & Duncan, John & Staatz, John M. & Howard, Julie A. & Lundberg, Mattias K.A. & Aldridge, Kim & Nakaponda, Bethel & Ferris, John N. & Keita, Francis & Sanankoua, Abd, 1996.
"Trends in Real Food Prices in Six Sub-Saharan African Countries,"
Food Security International Development Working Papers
54695, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
- Jayne, Thomas S. & Mukumbu, Mulinge & Duncan, John & Staatz, John M. & Howard, Julie A. & Lundberg, Mattias K.A. & Aldridge, Kim & Nakaponda, Bethel & Ferris, John N. & Keita, Francis & Sanankoua, Abd, 1995. "Trends in Real Food Prices in Six Sub-Saharan African Countries," Food Security International Development Policy Syntheses 11327, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
- Gary G. Moser, 1994. "The Main Determinants of Inflation in Nigeria," IMF Working Papers 94/76, International Monetary Fund.
- Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006.
"Inflation in Pakistan; Money or Wheat?,"
IMF Working Papers
06/60, International Monetary Fund.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Jean-Claude Nachega, 2001. "Financial Liberalization, Money Demand, and Inflation in Uganda," IMF Working Papers 01/118, International Monetary Fund.
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