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High Growth and Low Consumption in East Asia; How to Improve Welfare While Avoiding Financial Failures

  • Céline Rochon
  • Andrew Feltenstein
  • Maral Shamloo

This paper analyzes certain policies that are typical of a number of rapidly growing East Asian countries in which a fixed exchange rate, combined with a surplus labor market, has made domestic assets relatively inexpensive, generating high rates of FDI as well as domestic capital formation. This "investment hunger" can lead to unanticipated declines in the returns to investment, and resulting financial insolvencies. Private consumption remains low and there are concerns that high savings rates cannot be sustained. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model and apply it to a stylized Asian economy, loosely based upon China. We calibrate a benchmark equilibrium, and carry out various counterfactual simulations to analyze alternative policies, in particular tax cuts and exchange rate revaluations, as instruments in increasing private consumption while avoiding bank failures.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/278.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/278
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  1. James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2001. "Multinational Firms: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Topics in Empirical International Economics: A Festschrift in Honor of Robert E. Lipsey, pages 71-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  6. John Whalley & Xian Xin, 2006. "China's FDI and Non-FDI Economies and the Sustainability of Future High Chinese Growth," NBER Working Papers 12249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Philip R. Lane & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2006. "The international financial integration of China and India," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
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  10. repec:imf:imfwpa:03/86 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Zhang, Kevin Honglin & Song, Shunfeng, 2001. "Promoting exports: the role of inward FDI in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 385-396.
  12. Eichengreen, Barry & Tong, Hui, 2007. "Is China's FDI coming at the expense of other countries?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 153-172, June.
  13. Bruce A. Blonigen, 2005. "A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants," NBER Working Papers 11299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Andrew Feltenstein, 2000. "Bank Failures and Fiscal Austerity; Policy Presecriptions for a Developing Country," IMF Working Papers 00/90, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Gordon H. Hanson & Raymond J. Mataloni, Jr. & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2001. "Expansion Strategies of U.S. Multinational Firms," NBER Working Papers 8433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Fung, K. C. & Iizaka, Hitomi & Siu, Alan, 2003. "Japanese direct investment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 304-315.
  18. Charles W. Calormiris & Berry Wilson, 1998. "Bank Capital and Portfolio Management: The 1930's Capital Crunch and Scramble to Shed Risk," NBER Working Papers 6649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Froot, Kenneth A & Stein, Jeremy C, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-217, November.
  20. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  21. Blejer, Mario I. & Feldman, Ernesto V. & Feltenstein, Andrew, 2002. "Exogenous shocks, contagion, and bank soundness: a macroeconomic framework," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 33-52, February.
  22. Nunnenkamp, Peter & Spatz, Julius, 2002. "Determinants of FDI in Developing Countries: Has Globalization Changed the Rules of the Game?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 2976, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  23. Kuijs, Louis, 2005. "Investment and saving in China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3633, The World Bank.
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