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How Well Do Aggregate Bank Ratios Identify Banking Problems?

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  • Martin Cihak
  • Klaus Schaeck

Abstract

The paper provides an empirical analysis of aggregate banking system ratios during systemic banking crises. Drawing upon a wide cross-country dataset, we utilize parametric and nonparametric tests to assess the power of these ratios to discriminate between sound and unsound banking systems. We also estimate a duration model to investigate whether the ratios help determine the timing of a banking crisis. Despite some weaknesses in the available data, our findings offer initial evidence that some indicators are precursors for the likelihood and timing of systemic banking problems. Nevertheless, we caution against sole reliance on these indicators and advocate supplementing them with other tools and techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Cihak & Klaus Schaeck, 2007. "How Well Do Aggregate Bank Ratios Identify Banking Problems?," IMF Working Papers 07/275, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/275
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    Cited by:

    1. Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Assaf, A. George & Matousek, Roman, 2015. "Dynamic technical and allocative efficiencies in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 130-139.
    2. De Jonghe, Olivier, 2010. "Back to the basics in banking? A micro-analysis of banking system stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 387-417, July.
    3. Patrick Honohan, 2008. "Risk Management and the Costs of the Banking Crisis," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 206(1), pages 15-24, October.
    4. Olivier De Jonghe, 2009. "Back to the basics in banking ? A micro-analysis of banking system stability," Working Paper Research 167, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. De Jonghe, O.G., 2009. "Back to Basics in Banking? A Micro-Analysis of Banking System Stability," Discussion Paper 2009-45 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Tao Sun, 2011. "Identifying Vulnerabilities in Systemically-Important Financial Institutions in a Macro-Financial Linkages Framework," IMF Working Papers 11/111, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Patrick Honohan, 2009. "Bank Failures: The Limitations of Risk Modeling," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: The First Credit Market Turmoil Of The 21st Century Implications for Public Policy, chapter 8, pages 103-123 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Cihák, Martin & Schaeck, Klaus, 2010. "How well do aggregate prudential ratios identify banking system problems?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 130-144, September.
    9. Tigran Poghosyan & Martin Cihak, 2009. "Distress in European Banks; An Analysis Basedon a New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 09/9, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Radu Muntean, 2009. "Early Warning Models for Banking Supervision in Romania," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 39, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
    11. repec:wsi:rpbfmp:v:20:y:2017:i:04:n:s021909151750028x is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Martin Cihak, 2009. "Financial Crisis (introduction)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(6), pages 502-506, December.
    13. Hamdaoui, Mekki, 2016. "Are systemic banking crises in developed and developing countries predictable?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 114-138.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; Banking crises; Financial soundness indicators; Financial crisis; Economic models; macroprudential analysis; banking; capital adequacy; return on equity; banking crisis;

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