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Fiscal Policy and the Exchange Rate-Current Account Nexus

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  • Jun I Kim

Abstract

By using a simple intertemporal model of the current account, I show that the exchange rate elasticity of the trade balance would ceteris paribus be smaller for countries with higher government spending ratios (relative to GDP) and with more limited scope for private consumption smoothing. This finding may have important implications for the design of adjustment programs and for resolving current global imbalances. It could also help explain and reconcile mixed empirical findings on trade elasticities.

Suggested Citation

  • Jun I Kim, 2007. "Fiscal Policy and the Exchange Rate-Current Account Nexus," IMF Working Papers 07/27, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/27
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    2. Hassan Mohammadi, 2004. "Budget deficits and the current account balance: New evidence from panel data," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 28(1), pages 39-45, March.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
    4. Robert A. Mundell, 1960. "The Monetary Dynamics of International Adjustment under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 227-257.
    5. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2008. "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 362-383.
    6. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
    7. S M Ali Abbas & Jacques Bouhga-Hagbe & Antonio Fatás & Paolo Mauro & Ricardo C Velloso, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(4), pages 603-629, November.
    8. Armstrong, H. & De Kervenoael, R. J. & Li, X. & Read, R., 1998. "A comparison of the economic performance of different micro-states, and between micro-states and larger countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 639-656, April.
    9. Patrick A. Imam, 2008. "Rapid Current Account Adjustments; Are Microstates Different?," IMF Working Papers 08/233, International Monetary Fund.
    10. W. E. G. Salter, 1959. "Internal And External Balance: The Role Op Price And Expenditure Effects," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(71), pages 226-238, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Economic models; exchange rate elasticity of trade balance; fiscal policy; consumption smoothing; exchange rate; government spending; real exchange rate;

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