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The Duration of Capital Account Crises—An Empirical Analysis

  • David Hofman
  • Ruben Atoyan
  • Dimitri Tzanninis
  • Mauro Mecagni
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    This paper examines the duration of capital account crises. We develop a new index to identify both the start and the end of these crises. Applying the index to a sample of 18 crisis episodes, we derive stylized facts on crisis duration and review the economic and financial circumstances that prevailed at the dusk of crises, a relatively unexplored area. We use the econometric technique of duration analysis to gauge the relative importance of various factors affecting the probability of exiting a crisis. We find that initial and external conditions are key determinants. But fiscal and monetary policies can also help shorten crisis duration.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/258.

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    Length: 42
    Date of creation: 01 Nov 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/258
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    1. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta & Ashoka Mody, 2006. "Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs," NBER Working Papers 12235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2006. "Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: Currency crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 225-248, February.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 11170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey & Cavallo, Eduardo, 2004. "Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality," Working Paper Series rwp04-038, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    6. Marcos Chamon & Paolo Manasse & Alessandro Prati, 2007. "Can We Predict the Next Capital Account Crisis?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 270-305, June.
    7. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2005. "Cross-country empirical studies of systemic bank distress : a survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3719, The World Bank.
    8. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
      [The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]
      ," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2003. "Varieties of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 10193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A Calvo, 2006. "Phoenix miracles in emerging markets: recovering without credit from systemic financial crises," BIS Working Papers 221, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Guillermo Calvo, 2007. "Crises in Emerging Market Economies: A Global Perspective," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 441, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Barry J. Eichengreen & Inci Ötker & A. Javier Hamann & Esteban Jadresic & R. B. Johnston & Hugh Bredenkamp & Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Exit Strategies: Policy Options for Countries Seeking Exchange Rate Flexibility," IMF Occasional Papers 168, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Ales Bulir & Marianne Schulze-Gattas & Atish R. Ghosh & Alex Mourmouras & A. Javier Hamann & Timothy D. Lane, 2002. "IMF-Supported Programs in Capital Account Crises: Design and Experience," IMF Occasional Papers 210, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Marc Klau & John Hawkins, 2000. "Measuring potential vulnerabilities in emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 91, Bank for International Settlements.
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