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Finance and Convergence; What’s Ahead for Emerging Europe?

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  • Philip Schellekens
  • Rudolfs Bems

Abstract

This paper singles out the key short-term risks and medium-term challenges related to finance and convergence in emerging Europe. With the help of a general equilibrium theoretical framework, the paper identifies pragmatic directions for policymakers. While the "speed limits" to capital inflows may be hard to determine, the costs of breaking them are likely substantial. To ensure "safe driving," policymakers ought to build buffers and reduce vulnerabilities. Equally important, yet often overlooked, is the need to prepare for "the curve ahead"-the reversal of external current account imbalances. To avoid painful adjustments, flexible factor markets and strong financial systems will be more important than ever.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Schellekens & Rudolfs Bems, 2007. "Finance and Convergence; What’s Ahead for Emerging Europe?," IMF Working Papers 07/244, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/244
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Josep Lluís CARRION-I-SILVESTRE & Mariam CAMARERO & Josep LLUÍS CARRION-I-SILVESTRE & Cecilio TAMARIT, "undated". "External Imbalances in a Monetary Union. Does the Lawson Doctrine Apply to Europe?," EcoMod2010 259600036, EcoMod.
    2. Michele Ca' Zorzi & Michał Rubaszek, 2012. "On the Empirical Evidence of the Intertemporal Current Account Model for the Euro Area Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 95-106, February.
    3. Jarko Fidrmuc & Reiner Martin, 2011. "FDI, Trade and Growth in CESEE Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 70-89.
    4. Rudolfs Bems & Philip Schellekens, 2008. "Macroeconomics of Migration in New Member States," IMF Working Papers 08/264, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ruben Atoyan, 2010. "Beyond the crisis: revisiting emerging Europe’s growth model," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(4), pages 329-356.
    6. Julia Kiraly & Judit Antal & Marton Nagy & Viktor Szabo, 2008. "Retail credit expansion and external finance in Hungary: lessons from the recent past (1998–2007)," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial globalisation and emerging market capital flows, volume 44, pages 221-233 Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Jesmin Rahman, 2008. "Current Account Developments in New Member States of the European Union; Equilibrium, Excess, and EU-Phoria," IMF Working Papers 08/92, International Monetary Fund.

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