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A Markov-Switching Approach to Measuring Exchange Market Pressure

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  • Francis Y Kumah

Abstract

This paper characterizes exchange market pressure as a nonlinear Markov-switching phenomenon, and examines its dynamics in response to money growth and inflation over three regimes. The empirical results identify episodes of exchange market pressure in the Kyrgyz Republic and confirm the statistical superiority of the nonlinear regime-switching model over a linear VAR version in understanding exchange market pressure. The nonlinear empirical approach adequately characterizes the data generation process and yields results that are consistent with theoretical predictions, particularly the dampening effect of monetary contraction on depreciation pressure. During periods of appreciation pressure, however, the reverse policy option-monetary expansion-may not be efficient, particularly where PPP rather than UIP drives exchange rates. In addition, monetary expansion in such cases defeats the primary objective of monetary policy-price stability-and may exacerbate the instability.

Suggested Citation

  • Francis Y Kumah, 2007. "A Markov-Switching Approach to Measuring Exchange Market Pressure," IMF Working Papers 07/242, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/242
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Morales Vásquez, Daniel, 2011. "Presiones cambiarias en el Perú: Un enfoque no lineal," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 20, pages 57-71.
    2. KAMGNA, Severin Yves & Ndambendia, Houdou, 2008. "Excès de liquidité systémique et effectivité de la politique monétaire : cas des pays de la CEMAC
      [Excess liquidity and monetary policy effectiveness: The case of CEMAC countries]
      ," MPRA Paper 9599, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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