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What Explains Germany's Rebounding Export Market Share?

  • Frederick L. Joutz
  • Stephan Danninger

Germany's export market share increased since 2000, while most industrial countries experienced declines. This study explores four explanations and evaluates their empirical contributions: (i) improved cost competitiveness, (ii) ties to fast growing trading partners, (iii) increased demand for capital goods, and (iv) regionalized production of goods (e.g. offshoring). An export model is estimated covering the period 1993-2005. The dominant factors explaining the increase in market share are trade relationships with fast growing countries and regionalized production in the export sector. Improved cost competitiveness had a comparatively smaller impact. There is no conclusive evidence of increased demand for capital goods.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/24.

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Length: 49
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/24
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  1. Becker, Sascha O. & Ekholm, Karolina & Jäckle, Robert & Mündler, Marc-Andreas, 2005. "Location choice and employment decisions: a comparison of German and Swedish multinationals," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Filippo di Mauro & Robert Anderton & Ekkehard Ernst & Laurent Maurin & Sonia Pokutova & Wim Melyn & Axel Jochem & N. M. Pakinezou & Javier Torres & Remy Lecat & Mark Cassidy & Roberto Tedeschi & Erik , 2005. "Competitiveness and the export performance of the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 30, European Central Bank.
  3. David Hummels & Jun Ishii & Kei-Mu Yi, 1999. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Staff Reports 72, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Ulman, Lloyd & Gerlach, Knut & Giuliano, Paola, 2005. "Wage Moderation and Rising Unemployment," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt6cf9726r, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
  5. Wendy Carlin & Andrew Glyn & John Van Reenen, 1999. "Export Market Performance of OECD countries: an empirical examination of the role of cost competitiveness," IFS Working Papers W99/22, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  6. Peter Hooper & Karen Johnson & Jaime Marquez, 1998. "Trade elasticities for G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 609, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2006. "The Pathological Export Boom and the Bazaar Effect: How to Solve the German Puzzle," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(9), pages 1157-1175, 09.
  8. Olivier Blanchard & Thomas Philippon, 2004. "The Quality of Labor Relations and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 10590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Sabine Stephan, 2006. "German Exports to the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 871-882, November.
  10. Davis, Donald R, 1998. "Does European Unemployment Prop Up American Wages? National Labor Markets and Global Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 478-94, June.
  11. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2005. "Basar-Ökonomie Deutschland - Exportweltmeister oder Schusslicht?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(06), pages 03-42, 03.
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