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Vulnerabilities in Emerging Southeastern Europe—How Much Cause for Concern?

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

While large inflows of capital into Southeastern Europe (SEE) have raised incomes, this has increased vulnerability to financial risks, which, if realized, can lead to costly adjustments. Traditional vulnerability indicators in SEE have reached levels that in other countries have not been sustainable, and sectoral analysis shows rising imbalances and raises questions about efficient use of the inflows. While factors related to EU integration mitigate these vulnerabilities, weaker institutions reduce these benefits in SEE compared to more advanced European emerging markets. To insure against setbacks to income convergence, SEE policymakers should take measures to reverse the buildup of vulnerabilities.

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  • International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Vulnerabilities in Emerging Southeastern Europe—How Much Cause for Concern?," IMF Working Papers 07/236, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/236
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea M Maechler & Srobona Mitra & Delisle Worrell, 2010. "Decomposing Financial Risks and Vulnerabilities in Emerging Europe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 25-60, April.
    2. MASUJIMA Yuki, 2017. "Safe Haven Currency and Market Uncertainty: Yen, renminbi, dollar, and alternatives," Discussion papers 17048, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Degryse, Hans & Havrylchyk, Olena & Jurzyk, Emilia & Kozak, Sylwester, 2012. "Foreign bank entry, credit allocation and lending rates in emerging markets: Empirical evidence from Poland," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2949-2959.
    4. Brown, Martin & Ongena, Steven & Yesin, Pinar, 2011. "Foreign currency borrowing by small firms in the transition economies," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 285-302, July.
    5. Degryse, H.A. & Havrylchyk, O. & Jurzyk, E. & Kozak, S., 2009. "Foreign Bank Entry and Credit Allocation in Emerging Markets," Discussion Paper 2009-94, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Bas B Bakker & Leslie Lipschitz, 2011. "Monetary Policy Challenges in the CESEE Region: Architecture for an Earthquake Zone," Chapters,in: Post-Crisis Growth and Integration in Europe, chapter 11 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Dumitru, Ionut & Dumitru, Ionela, 2009. "An Assessment of the Current Account Sustainability in Romania – An Inter-temporal Perspective," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(2), pages 23-41, June.
    8. Rupert D Worrell & Andrea M. Maechler & Srobona Mitra, 2007. "Decomposing Financial Risks and Vulnerabilities in Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 07/248, International Monetary Fund.

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