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Measuring Sovereign Risk in Turkey; An Application of the Contingent Claims Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Keller
  • Peter J Kunzel
  • Marcos R Souto

Abstract

Improved macroeconomic conditions and changes to the asset-liability structure on Turkish balance sheets since the 2001 crisis have improved Turkey's overall sovereign risk profile. Nonetheless, the country remains subject to bouts of volatility, as evidenced most recently in the May/June 2006 market turbulence. This paper examines these changes in Turkey's risk profile using the Contingent Claims Approach (CCA), to quantify the evolution of Turkey's sovereign risk, relate risk indicators to market prices of risk, and conduct scenario analyses to assess the effects of potential market volatility and policy adjustments on key risk indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Keller & Peter J Kunzel & Marcos R Souto, 2007. "Measuring Sovereign Risk in Turkey; An Application of the Contingent Claims Approach," IMF Working Papers 07/233, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/233
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    Cited by:

    1. Nuno Silva, 2010. "Inter-Sector Relations in the Portuguese Economy: an Application of Contingent," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Dale F. Gray & Elena Loukoianova & Samuel W. Malone & Cheng Hoon Lim, 2008. "A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework; Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 08/40, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Lai, Wan-Ni, 2016. "Evaluating the sovereign and household credit risk in Singapore: A contingent claims approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 435-447.
    4. Kamil Janacek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Michal Hlavacek & Lubos Komarek, 2012. "Impacts Of The Sovereign Default Crisis On The Czech Financial Sector," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2011/2012, chapter 0, pages 118-128 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    5. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2013. "Measuring financial stress in transition economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 597-611.
    6. Arslanalp, Serkan & Liao, Yin, 2014. "Banking sector contingent liabilities and sovereign risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 316-330.
    7. Martin Cihak & Petya Koeva Brooks, 2009. "From Subprime Loans to Subprime Growth? Evidence for the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 09/69, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Kalteier, Eva-Maria & Posch, Peter N., 2013. "Sovereign asset values and implications for the credit market," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 53-60.
    9. Posch, Peter N & Kalteier, Eva-Maria, 2013. "Sovereign Asset Values and Implications for the Credit Market," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79986, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Cevik, Emrah I. & Dibooglu, Sel & Kenc, Turalay, 2016. "Financial stress and economic activity in some emerging Asian economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 127-139.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Economic models; Economic indicators; Public debt; Sovereign risk; Turkey; Contingent Claims; domestic debt; exchange rate; external debt; foreign exchange; forward exchange rate;

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