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Can Miracles Lead to Crises? the Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises

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  • Emine Boz

Abstract

Emerging market financial crises are abrupt and dramatic, usually occurring after a period of high output growth, massive capital flows, and a boom in asset markets. This paper develops an equilibrium asset-pricing model with informational frictions in which vulnerability and the crisis itself are consequences of the investor optimism in the period preceding the crisis. The model features two sets of investors, domestic and foreign. Both sets of investors learn from noisy signals, which contain information relevant for asset returns and formulate expectations, or "beliefs," about the state of productivity. We show that, if preceded by a sequence of positive signals, a small, negative noise shock can trigger a sharp downward adjustment in investors' beliefs, asset prices, and consumption. The magnitude of this downward adjustment and sensitivity to negative signals increase with the level of optimism attained prior to the negative signal.

Suggested Citation

  • Emine Boz, 2007. "Can Miracles Lead to Crises? the Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises," IMF Working Papers 07/223, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/223
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    Cited by:

    1. Boz, Emine & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2014. "Financial innovation, the discovery of risk, and the U.S. credit crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-22.
    2. Emine Boz & Christian Daude & Ceyhun Bora Durdu, 2008. "Emerging market business cycles revisited: learning about the trend," International Finance Discussion Papers 927, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Boz, Emine & Daude, Christian & Bora Durdu, C., 2011. "Emerging market business cycles: Learning about the trend," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 616-631.
    4. Agustin Roitman & Christian Daude, 2011. "Imperfect Information and Saving in a Small Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 11/60, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Zhu, Junjun & Xie, Shiyu, 2011. "Asymmetric Shocks, Long-term Bonds and Sovereign Default," MPRA Paper 28236, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging markets; Financial crisis; Financial crises; Economic models; Consumption; Asset prices; Foreign investment; Investment; informational frictions; learning; investors; probability; equation; foreign investors; probabilities;

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