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Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility in a Small Macro Model of Israel

  • Eyal Argov
  • David Rose
  • Philippe D Karam
  • Natan P. Epstein
  • Douglas Laxton

This paper extends a small linear model of the Israeli economy to allow for nonlinearities in the inflation-output process that arise from convexity in the Phillips curve and endogenous monetary policy credibility. We find that the dynamic responses to shocks in the extended model more closely resemble features in the data from the period 2001?03. In particular, the extended model does a much better job in accounting for the deterioration in monetary policy credibility and the output costs of regaining monetary policy credibility once it has been lost.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/207.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/207
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  1. Douglas Laxton & Guy Meredith & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation: Evidence and Policy Implications," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 344-374, June.
  2. Faust, Jon & Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals," CEPR Discussion Papers 1852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Papers 638, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  4. Guy Debelle & Douglas Laxton, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 249-282, June.
  5. Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 2001. "Inflation Targeting with NAIRU Uncertainty and Endogenous Policy Credibility," IMF Working Papers 01/7, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis: Overview," IMF Working Papers 06/80, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye & Douglas Laxton, 2002. "Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff; Some Evidence From 17 Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/220, International Monetary Fund.
  8. John D. Stiver, 2003. "Expectations, and Credibility in a Model of Monetary Policy," Working papers 2003-34, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
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