IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/07-196.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global Aging Pressures; Impact of Fiscal Adjustment, Policy Cooperation, and Structural Reforms

Author

Listed:
  • Manmohan S. Kumar
  • Dennis P Botman

Abstract

Demographic pressures will materialize in many economies over the next few decades. We examine the macroeconomic impact of alternative fiscal adjustment and structural reform strategies to address these global aging pressures using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model (GFM). The results suggest substantial spillover effects of aging through international financial channels. To maintain sustainability, fiscal adjustment needs to be broad-based, while avoiding increases in direct taxes. There are substantial benefits from fiscal cooperation, while negative growth effects can be offset by complementary structural reforms in product and labor markets with the benefits accruing early and to all incomegroups.

Suggested Citation

  • Manmohan S. Kumar & Dennis P Botman, 2007. "Global Aging Pressures; Impact of Fiscal Adjustment, Policy Cooperation, and Structural Reforms," IMF Working Papers 07/196, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/196
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=21230
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ghironi, Fabio & Iscan, Talan B. & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2008. "Net foreign asset positions and consumption dynamics in the international economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1337-1359, December.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
    3. Nicoletta Batini & Papa N'Diaye & Alessandro Rebucci, 2005. "The domestic and global impact of Japan’s policies for growth," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Michiel Evers & Ruud de Mooij & Daniël van Vuuren, 2005. "What explains the variation in estimates of labour supply elasticities?," CPB Discussion Paper 51, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Ganelli, Giovanni, 2005. "The new open economy macroeconomics of government debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 167-184, January.
    6. Ford, Robert & Laxton, Douglas, 1999. "World Public Debt and Real Interest Rates," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 77-94, Summer.
    7. Nadiri, M.I., 1993. "Innovations and Technological Spillovers," Working Papers 93-31, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    8. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-279, July.
    9. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    10. Ganelli, Giovanni, 2003. "Useful government spending, direct crowding-out and fiscal policy interdependence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 87-103, February.
    11. Wolfgang Keller, 1997. "Trade and Transmission of Technology," NBER Working Papers 6113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Dennis P Botman & Stephan Danninger, 2007. "Tax Reform and Debt Sustainability in Germany; An Assessment Using the Global Fiscal Model," IMF Working Papers 07/46, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
    14. M. Ishaq Nadiri, 1993. "Innovations and Technological Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 4423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Erik Canton & Bert Minne & Ate Nieuwenhuis & Bert Smid & Marc van der Steeg, 2005. "Human capital, R&D, and competition in macroeconomic analysis," CPB Document 91, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Caselli, Paola, 2001. "Fiscal consolidation under fixed exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 425-450, March.
    17. Helge Berger & Stephan Danninger, 2005. "Labor and Product Market Deregulation; Partial, Sequential, or Simultaneous Reform?," IMF Working Papers 05/227, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Martin Werding & Anita Dehne, 2005. "Modellrechnungen zur langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 17, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dennis P Botman & Anita Tuladhar, 2008. "Tax and Pension Reform in the Czech Republic—Implications for Growth and Debt Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 08/125, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Dora M Iakova & Dennis P Botman, 2007. "Policy Challenges of Population Aging in Ireland," IMF Working Papers 07/247, International Monetary Fund.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.