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Estimation of Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the WAEMU; A Robustness Analysis

Author

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  • Magnus Saxegaard
  • Stéphane Roudet
  • Charalambos G Tsangarides

Abstract

Using the FEER approach we investigate the long-run equilibrium paths of the real effective exchange rates (REERs) of countries in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). In an attempt to address econometric estimation uncertainty, we employ both single-country (Johansen and ARDL) and panel-data (FMOLS and PMG) cointegration techniques. We find that (i) much of the long-run behavior of REERs in WAEMU countries can be explained by fluctuations in terms of trade, government consumption, investment, and productivity; (ii) the use of different econometric techniques suggests that there is significant uncertainty about the path of the underlying equilibrium REERs and the degree of exchange rate misalignment, which underscores the need for robustness analyses in exchange rate modeling; and (iii) results from panel-data cointegration may sometimes be useful, but should always be complemented with single-country estimations to ensure that the results take into account country-specific characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Magnus Saxegaard & Stéphane Roudet & Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2007. "Estimation of Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the WAEMU; A Robustness Analysis," IMF Working Papers 07/194, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/194
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eberechukwu UNEZE, 2011. "Foreign Aid And The Real Exchange Rate In The West African Economic And Monetary Union (Waemu)," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 11(1).
    2. repec:bla:reviec:v:25:y:2017:i:5:p:949-974 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Cécile Couharde & Issiaka Coulibaly & Olivier Damette, 2011. "Misalignments and Dynamics of Real Exchange Rates in the CFA Franc Zone," EconomiX Working Papers 2011-28, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    4. Lone Christiansen & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Thierry Tressel, 2010. "External Balance in Low-Income Countries," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 265-322 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Francesco Aiello & Graziella Bonanno & Alessia Via, 2015. "Again on trade elasticities: evidence from a selected sample of countries," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(2), pages 259-287, December.
    6. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2012. "Revenue and expenditure nexus: A case study of ECOWAS," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-57, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2012. "Taux de change et mésalignements du franc CFA avant et après l’introduction de l’euro," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-3, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    8. Emilio Pineda & Paul Cashin & Yan M Sun, 2009. "Assessing Exchange Rate Competitiveness in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 09/78, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Francesco Aiello & Graziella Bonanno & Alessia Via, 2015. "New Evidence on Export Price Elasticity from China and Six OECD Countries," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(6), pages 56-78, November.
    10. Grekou, Carl, 2015. "Revisiting the nexus between currency misalignments and growth in the CFA Zone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 142-154.
    11. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2017. "Exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 949-974, November.
    12. Mohey-ud-din, Ghulam & Siddiqi, Muhammad Wasif, 2013. "GDP Fluctuations and Private Investment: A Macro Panel Analysis of Selected South Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 60231, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2014.
    13. Andrew Berg & Yanliang Miao, 2010. "The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited; The Washington Consensus Strikes Back?," IMF Working Papers 10/58, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2014. "Long-run determinants and misalignments of the real effective exchange rate in the EU," MPRA Paper 59571, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2014.
    15. Coulibaly, Issiaka & Gnimassoun, Blaise, 2013. "Optimality of a monetary union: New evidence from exchange rate misalignments in West Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 463-482.
    16. Corinne Deléchat & Matthew Gaertner, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessment in a Resource-Dependent Economy; The Case of Botswana," IMF Working Papers 08/83, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Eberechukwu UNEZE, 2011. "Foreign Aid And The Real Exchange Rate In The West African Economic And Monetary Union (Waemu)," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 11(2).
    18. Chandra, Vandana & Osorio Rodarte, Israel, 2009. "Options for Income-Enhancing Diversification in Burkina Faso," MPRA Paper 20928, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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