Estimation of Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the WAEMU; A Robustness Analysis
Using the FEER approach we investigate the long-run equilibrium paths of the real effective exchange rates (REERs) of countries in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). In an attempt to address econometric estimation uncertainty, we employ both single-country (Johansen and ARDL) and panel-data (FMOLS and PMG) cointegration techniques. We find that (i) much of the long-run behavior of REERs in WAEMU countries can be explained by fluctuations in terms of trade, government consumption, investment, and productivity; (ii) the use of different econometric techniques suggests that there is significant uncertainty about the path of the underlying equilibrium REERs and the degree of exchange rate misalignment, which underscores the need for robustness analyses in exchange rate modeling; and (iii) results from panel-data cointegration may sometimes be useful, but should always be complemented with single-country estimations to ensure that the results take into account country-specific characteristics.
|Date of creation:||01 Aug 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005.
"Unit roots and cointegration in panels,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Jörg Breitung & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2005. "Unit Roots and Cointegration in Panels," IEPR Working Papers 05.32, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
- Joerg Breitung & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2005. "Unit Roots and Cointegration in Panels," CESifo Working Paper Series 1565, CESifo Group Munich.
- Breitung, J. & Pesaran, M.H., 2005. "Unit Roots and Cointegration in Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0535, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
- Hinkle, Lawrence E. & Monteil, Peter J. (ed.), 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195211269.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995.
"Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997.
"Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
- Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000.
"Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
- Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1494, Econometric Society.
- Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "IPSHIN: RATS procedure to implement Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00098, Boston College Department of Economics.
- MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Yasser Abdih & Charalambos Tsangarides, 2010. "FEER for the CFA franc," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(16), pages 2009-2029.
- Charalambos G Tsangarides & Yasser Abdih, 2006. "FEER for the CFA Franc," IMF Working Papers 06/236, International Monetary Fund.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Joannes Mongardini & Alexander Chudik, 2007. "In Search of Equilibrium; Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/90, International Monetary Fund.
- Suzanne McCoskey & Chihwa Kao, 1998. "A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 57-84.
- Chihwa Kao & Suzanne McCoskey, 1997. "A Residual-Based Test Of The Null Of Cointegration In Panel Data," Econometrics 9711002, EconWPA.
- Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-629, Special I.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
- Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
- Tom Doan, "undated". "LEVINLIN: RATS procedure to perform Levin-Lin-Chu test for unit roots in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00242, Boston College Department of Economics.