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Where Have the Monetary Surprises Gone? The Effects of FOMC Statements

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  • Andrew J Swiston

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of central bank communication on market expectations of monetary policy and long-term interest rates by comparing Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) action dates when a policy statement was made to dates before statements were issued. Increased communication has been associated with a reduction in the magnitude of short-term monetary surprises; a greater flow of information about the long-term path of policy that is distinct from the short-term surprise; and a larger role for these long-term surprises in the determination of long-term interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew J Swiston, 2007. "Where Have the Monetary Surprises Gone? The Effects of FOMC Statements," IMF Working Papers 07/185, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/185
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    Cited by:

    1. Berument, Hakan & Froyen, Richard, 2009. "Monetary policy and U.S. long-term interest rates: How close are the linkages?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 34-50.
    2. N. K. Kishor & H. A. Marfatia, 2013. "Does federal funds futures rate contain information about the treasury bill rate?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(16), pages 1311-1324, August.
    3. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2015. "Monetary policy's time-varying impact on the US bond markets: Role of financial stress and risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 103-123.
    4. Tamim Bayoumi & Trung T Bui, 2011. "Unforeseen Events Wait Lurking; Estimating Policy Spillovers From U.S. to Foreign Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 11/183, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Hakan Berument & Richard T. Froyen, 2015. "Monetary policy and interest rates under inflation targeting in Australia and New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 171-188, August.
    6. Mira Farka & Adrian R. Fleissig, 2013. "The impact of FOMC statements on the volatility of asset prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(10), pages 1287-1301, April.
    7. Mira Farka & Adrian R. Fleissig, 2012. "The effect of FOMC statements on asset prices," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 387-416, April.

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    Keywords

    Central banks; Interest rates; Monetary policy; United States; monetary economics; long-term interest rates; central bank; discount rate;

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