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Fiscal Adjustments; Determinants and Macroeconomic Consequences

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Alexander Plekhanov
  • Manmohan S. Kumar
  • Daniel Leigh

Abstract

The paper analyzes the determinants of success of recent fiscal consolidations in the OECD countries as well as the short-run and long-run effects of fiscal adjustments on economic activity by looking at fourteen case studies, panel data for OECD countries, and the results of simulations using a non-Ricardian multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model. The study finds that while fiscal consolidations tend to have short-run contractionary effects, they can be expansionary in the long run, provided that they do not rely excessively on cuts in productive government expenditure. They can also create positive spillover effects for the rest of the world.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/178.

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Length: 38
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2007
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/178
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Keywords: Adjustment process; Economic models; Fiscal adjustment; Fiscal consolidation; Public debt; Government debt; Fiscal policy; non-Ricardian model; expenditure; fiscal consolidations;

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  1. Stefania Fabrizio & Ashoka Mody, 2006. "Can budget institutions counteract political indiscipline?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 689-739, October.
  2. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
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  4. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
  5. Douglas Laxton & Michael Kumhof, 2007. "A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits," IMF Working Papers 07/202, International Monetary Fund.
  6. C. John McDermott & Robert F. Wescott, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 725-753, December.
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  8. Alt, James E. & Lassen, David Dreyer, 2006. "Fiscal transparency, political parties, and debt in OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1403-1439, August.
  9. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who Adjusts and When? On the Political Economy of Reforms," NBER Working Papers 12049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Lambertini Luisa & Tavares José A, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fiscal Adjustments: Evidence from the OECD and Implications for the EMU," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, December.
  11. Gleich, Holger, 2003. "Budget institutions and fiscal performance in Central and Eastern European countries," Working Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
  12. Mark A Horton & George C. Tsibouris & Wojciech Maliszewski & Mark J Flanagan, 2006. "Experience with Large Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Occasional Papers 246, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Julia Darby & V. Anton Muscatelli & Graeme Roy, 2005. "Fiscal consolidation and decentralisation: a tale of two tiers," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 169-195, June.
  14. von Hagen, Jurgen & Strauch, Rolf R, 2001. "Fiscal Consolidations: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Success," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 109(3-4), pages 327-346, December.
  15. Taimur Baig & Abdul d Abiad, 2005. "Underlying Factors Driving Fiscal Effort in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 05/106, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Tabellini, Guido, 1986. "Money, debt and deficits in a dynamic game," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-442, December.
  17. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
  18. Shang-Jin Wei & Irina Tytell, 2004. "Does Financial Globalization Induce Better Macroeconomic Policies?," IMF Working Papers 04/84, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:

  1. Alberto Alesina & Dorian Carloni & Giampaolo Lecce, 2012. "The Electoral Consequences of Large Fiscal Adjustments," NBER Chapters,in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 531-570 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sacchi, Agnese & Salotti, Simone, 2015. "The impact of national fiscal rules on the stabilisation function of fiscal policy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-20.
  3. Werner Schule, 2010. "The Potential Contribution of Fiscal Policy to Rebalancing and Growth in New Zealand," IMF Working Papers 10/128, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Charles Amo Yartey & Machiko Narita & Garth Peron Nicholls & Joel Chiedu Okwuokei, 2012. "The Challenges of Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Reduction in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 12/276, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Nicolas Carnot & Francisco de Castro, 2015. "The Discretionary Fiscal Effort: An Assessment of Fiscal Policy and Its Output Effect," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 63-94, December.
  6. Dell' Erba, Salvatore & Mattina, Todd & Roitman, Agustin, 2015. "Pressure or prudence? Tales of market pressure and fiscal adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 196-213.
  7. Luis-Felipe Zanna & Olivier Basdevant & Susan Yang & Genevieve Verdier & Joannes Mongardini & Borislava Mircheva & Dalmacio Benicio, 2011. "The Design of Fiscal Adjustment Strategies in Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland," IMF Working Papers 11/266, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Olivier Basdevant, 2012. "Fiscal Policies and Rules in the Face of Revenue Volatility within Southern Africa Customs Union Countries (SACU)," IMF Working Papers 12/93, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Sebastian Dellepiane & Niamh Hardiman, 2012. "The New Politics of Austerity: Fiscal Responses to the Economic Crisis in Ireland and Spain," Working Papers 201207, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  10. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Post-Crisis Fiscal Policy Priorities for the ASEAN-5," IMF Working Papers 10/252, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Niamh Hardiman, 2013. "Rethinking the political economy of fiscal consolidation in two recessions in Ireland," Working Papers 201316, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  12. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "New Zealand; Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 10/145, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2009. "Fiscal adjustments: do labor and product market institutions matter?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 389-411, June.
  14. Salvador Barrios & Sven Langedijk & Lucio Pench, 2010. "EU fiscal consolidation after the financial crisis. Lessons from past experiences," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 418, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  15. Sebastian Dellepiane & Niamh Hardiman, 2012. "Fiscal Politics In Time: Pathways to Fiscal Consolidation, 1980-2012," Working Papers 201228, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  16. Papageorgiou, Dimitris, 2012. "Fiscal policy reforms in general equilibrium: The case of Greece," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 504-522.

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