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Fiscal Adjustments; Determinants and Macroeconomic Consequences

Author Info

  • Alexander Plekhanov
  • Manmohan S. Kumar
  • Daniel Leigh

Abstract

The paper analyzes the determinants of success of recent fiscal consolidations in the OECD countries as well as the short-run and long-run effects of fiscal adjustments on economic activity by looking at fourteen case studies, panel data for OECD countries, and the results of simulations using a non-Ricardian multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model. The study finds that while fiscal consolidations tend to have short-run contractionary effects, they can be expansionary in the long run, provided that they do not rely excessively on cuts in productive government expenditure. They can also create positive spillover effects for the rest of the world.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/178.

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Length: 38
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/178
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Keywords: Adjustment process; Economic models; Fiscal adjustment; Fiscal consolidation; Public debt; Government debt; Fiscal policy; non-Ricardian model; expenditure; fiscal consolidations;

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  1. Alt, James E. & Lassen, David Dreyer, 2006. "Fiscal transparency, political parties, and debt in OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1403-1439, August.
  2. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who adjusts and when? On the political economy of reforms," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2108, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  7. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Heipertz, Martin & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2006. "Expenditure reform in industrialised countries: a case study approach," Working Paper Series 0634, European Central Bank.
  8. Julia Darby & V. Anton Muscatelli & Graeme Roy, 2004. "Fiscal Consolidation And Decentralisation: A Tale Of Two Tiers," Working Papers 2004_2, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  9. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
  10. Lambertini Luisa & Tavares José A, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fiscal Adjustments: Evidence from the OECD and Implications for the EMU," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, December.
  11. Shang-Jin Wei & Irina Tytell, 2004. "Does Financial Globalization Induce Better Macroeconomic Policies?," IMF Working Papers 04/84, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Douglas Laxton & Michael Kumhof, 2007. "A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits," 2007 Meeting Papers 676, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. C. John McDermott & Robert F. Wescott, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 725-753, December.
  14. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Tabellini, Guido, 1986. "Money, debt and deficits in a dynamic game," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-442, December.
  17. Gleich, Holger, 2003. "Budget institutions and fiscal performance in Central and Eastern European countries," Working Paper Series 0215, European Central Bank.
  18. Taimur Baig & Abdul d Abiad, 2005. "Underlying Factors Driving Fiscal Effort in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 05/106, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:

  1. Papageorgiou, Dimitris, 2012. "Fiscal policy reforms in general equilibrium: The case of Greece," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 504-522.
  2. Sacchi, Agnese & Salotti, Simone, 2014. "The impact of national fiscal rules on the stabilisation function of fiscal policy," MPRA Paper 56982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Alberto Alesina & Dorian Carloni & Giampaolo Lecce, 2012. "The Electoral Consequences of Large Fiscal Adjustments," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 531-570 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Luis-Felipe Zanna & Olivier Basdevant & Susan Yang & Genevieve Verdier & Joannes Mongardini & Borislava Mircheva & Dalmacio Benicio, 2011. "The Design of Fiscal Adjustment Strategies in Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland," IMF Working Papers 11/266, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2009. "Fiscal adjustments: do labor and product market institutions matter?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 389-411, June.
  6. Dell' Erba, Salvatore & Mattina, Todd & Roitman, Agustin, 2015. "Pressure or prudence? Tales of market pressure and fiscal adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 196-213.
  7. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Post-Crisis Fiscal Policy Priorities for the ASEAN-5," IMF Working Papers 10/252, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Sebastian Dellepiane & Niamh Hardiman, 2012. "The New Politics of Austerity: Fiscal Responses to the Economic Crisis in Ireland and Spain," Working Papers 201207, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  9. Charles Amo Yartey & Machiko Narita & Garth Peron Nicholls & Joel Chiedu Okwuokei, 2012. "The Challenges of Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Reduction in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 12/276, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Werner Schule, 2010. "The Potential Contribution of Fiscal Policy to Rebalancing and Growth in New Zealand," IMF Working Papers 10/128, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Olivier Basdevant, 2012. "Fiscal Policies and Rules in the Face of Revenue Volatility within Southern Africa Customs Union Countries (SACU)," IMF Working Papers 12/93, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Niamh Hardiman, 2013. "Rethinking the political economy of fiscal consolidation in two recessions in Ireland," Working Papers 201316, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  13. Salvador Barrios & Sven Langedijk & Lucio Pench, 2010. "EU fiscal consolidation after the financial crisis. Lessons from past experiences," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 418, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  14. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "New Zealand; Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 10/145, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Sebastian Dellepiane & Niamh Hardiman, 2012. "Fiscal Politics In Time: Pathways to Fiscal Consolidation, 1980-2012," Working Papers 201228, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.

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