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IMF Drawing Programs; Participation Determinants and Forecasting

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  • Eugenio M Cerutti

Abstract

This paper studies the factors that have influenced countries' participation in IMF drawing programs. IMF drawing programs are defined as the period of a Stand-By Arrangement or an Extended Fund Facilities program during which a country borrows from the Fund. Since this definition excludes precautionary arrangements and periods during which the program went off-track, it provides a closer link to the factors that have influenced the evolution of IMF credit outstanding. The analysis uses quarterly data during the period 1982-2005 and focuses on developing, non-PRGF eligible countries. Country-specific variables-net international reserves and GDP growth-together with a global factor-world GDP growth-are found to be among the most significant determinants of countries' participation in IMF drawing programs. The importance of the global factor is not uniform during the period reviewed. The influence of world GDP growth seems to have been significant during the 1980s debt crises but not since the Mexican crisis in 1994. An out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the period 2004-5 reveals that the model has some predictive power.

Suggested Citation

  • Eugenio M Cerutti, 2007. "IMF Drawing Programs; Participation Determinants and Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 07/152, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/152
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Moser & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2011. "Explaining IMF lending decisions after the Cold War," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 307-340, September.
    2. Jiro Honda, 2008. "Do IMF Programs Improve Economic Governance?," IMF Working Papers 08/114, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bal Gündüz, Yasemin, 2016. "The Economic Impact of Short-term IMF Engagement in Low-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 30-49.
    4. Yasemin Bal Gunduz, 2009. "Estimating Demand for IMF Financing by Low-Income Countries in Response to Shocks," IMF Working Papers 09/263, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Atish R. Ghosh & Juan Zalduendo & Manuela Goretti & Bikas Joshi & Alun H. Thomas, 2007. "Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources—Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections," IMF Working Papers 07/70, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ali J Al-Sadiq, 2015. "The Impact of IMF-Supported Programs on FDI in Low-income Countries," IMF Working Papers 15/157, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Christian Mumssen & Yasemin Bal Gunduz & Christian H Ebeke & Linda Kaltani, 2013. "IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries; Economic Impact over the Short and Longer Term," IMF Working Papers 13/273, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Extended arrangements; IMF Programs; IMF; Stand-by arrangements; Use of Fund resources; current account; imf credit outstanding; probability; probabilities; forecasting;

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