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Imf Drawing Programs; Participation Determinants and Forecasting

  • Eugenio Cerutti

This paper studies the factors that have influenced countries' participation in IMF drawing programs. IMF drawing programs are defined as the period of a Stand-By Arrangement or an Extended Fund Facilities program during which a country borrows from the Fund. Since this definition excludes precautionary arrangements and periods during which the program went off-track, it provides a closer link to the factors that have influenced the evolution of IMF credit outstanding. The analysis uses quarterly data during the period 1982-2005 and focuses on developing, non-PRGF eligible countries. Country-specific variables-net international reserves and GDP growth-together with a global factor-world GDP growth-are found to be among the most significant determinants of countries' participation in IMF drawing programs. The importance of the global factor is not uniform during the period reviewed. The influence of world GDP growth seems to have been significant during the 1980s debt crises but not since the Mexican crisis in 1994. An out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the period 2004-5 reveals that the model has some predictive power.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/152.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/152
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  1. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2002. "The Pattern of IMF Lending: An Analysis of Prediction Failures," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 173-186.
  2. Joseph P Joyce, 2004. "Adoption, Implementation and Impact of IMF Programmes: A Review of the Issues and Evidence1," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 451-467, September.
  3. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2001. "IMF lending: how is it affected by economic, political and institutional factors?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 243-270.
  4. Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2005. "Which Variables Explain Decisions on IMF Credit? An Extreme Bounds Analysis ," TWI Research Paper Series 13, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
  5. Knight, Malcolm & Santaella, Julio A., 1997. "Economic determinants of IMF financial arrangements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 405-436, December.
  6. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2002. "IMF Programs: Who is Chosen and What Are the Effects?," NBER Working Papers 8951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Miguel A. Savastano & Michael Mussa, 1999. "The IMF Approach to Economic Stabilization," IMF Working Papers 99/104, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2003. "Macroeconomic effects of IMF-sponsored programs in Latin America: output costs, program recidivism and the vicious cycle of failed stabilizations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 991-1014, December.
  9. Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems; A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
  10. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521816755 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Przeworski, Adam & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2000. "The effect of IMF programs on economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 385-421, August.
  12. Morris Goldstein & Peter Montiel, 1986. "Evaluating Fund Stabilization Programs with Multicountry Data: Some Methodological Pitfalls (Evaluation des programmes de stabilisation du Fonds à partir de données sur divers pays: quelques écueils," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 33(2), pages 304-344, June.
  13. Selim Elekdag, 2006. "How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources," IMF Working Papers 06/239, International Monetary Fund.
  14. James M. Boughton, 2004. "The IMF and the force of History; Ten Events and Ten Ideas that Have Shaped the Institution," IMF Working Papers 04/75, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Atish R. Ghosh & Juan Zalduendo & Manuela Goretti & Bikas Joshi & Alun H. Thomas, 2007. "Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources; Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections," IMF Working Papers 07/70, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Conway, Patrick, 1994. "IMF lending programs: Participation and impact," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 365-391, December.
  17. Joyce, Joseph P., 1992. "The economic characteristics of IMF program countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 237-242, February.
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