IMF Drawing Programs; Participation Determinants and Forecasting
This paper studies the factors that have influenced countries' participation in IMF drawing programs. IMF drawing programs are defined as the period of a Stand-By Arrangement or an Extended Fund Facilities program during which a country borrows from the Fund. Since this definition excludes precautionary arrangements and periods during which the program went off-track, it provides a closer link to the factors that have influenced the evolution of IMF credit outstanding. The analysis uses quarterly data during the period 1982-2005 and focuses on developing, non-PRGF eligible countries. Country-specific variables-net international reserves and GDP growth-together with a global factor-world GDP growth-are found to be among the most significant determinants of countries' participation in IMF drawing programs. The importance of the global factor is not uniform during the period reviewed. The influence of world GDP growth seems to have been significant during the 1980s debt crises but not since the Mexican crisis in 1994. An out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the period 2004-5 reveals that the model has some predictive power.
|Date of creation:||01 Jul 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Selim Elekdag, 2006. "How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources?," IMF Working Papers 06/239, .
- Atish R. Ghosh & Juan Zalduendo & Manuela Goretti & Bikas Joshi & Alun H. Thomas, 2007. "Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resourcesâ€”Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections," IMF Working Papers 07/70, .
- Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2002. "The Pattern of IMF Lending: An Analysis of Prediction Failures," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 173-186.
- Miguel A Savastano & Michael Mussa, 1999.
"The IMF Approach to Economic Stabilization,"
IMF Working Papers
- Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2003.
"Macroeconomic effects of IMF-sponsored programs in Latin America: output costs, program recidivism and the vicious cycle of failed stabilizations,"
Pacific Basin Working Paper Series
03-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2003. "Macroeconomic effects of IMF-sponsored programs in Latin America: output costs, program recidivism and the vicious cycle of failed stabilizations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 991-1014, December.
- Vreeland,James Raymond, 2003. "The IMF and Economic Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521816755, December.
- Knight, Malcolm & Santaella, Julio A., 1997. "Economic determinants of IMF financial arrangements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 405-436, December.
- Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2005. "Which Variables Explain Decisions on IMF Credit? An Extreme Bounds Analysisï¿½," TWI Research Paper Series 13, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universitï¿½t Konstanz.
- Robert J Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2003.
"IMF Programs: Who Is Chosen and What Are the Effects?,"
Departmental Working Papers
2003-09, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2005. "IMF programs: Who is chosen and what are the effects?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1245-1269, October.
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2002. "IMF Programs: Who is Chosen and What Are the Effects?," NBER Working Papers 8951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Przeworski, Adam & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2000. "The effect of IMF programs on economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 385-421, August.
- Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Berger, Helge & de Haan, Jakob, 2004.
"Which variables explain decisions on IMF credit? An extreme bounds analysis,"
2004/15, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
- Jan-Egbert Sturm & Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Which Variables Explain Decisions On Imf Credit? An Extreme Bounds Analysis," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17, pages 177-213, 07.
- James M. Boughton, 2004. "The IMF and the force of History; Ten Events and Ten Ideas that Have Shaped the Institution," IMF Working Papers 04/75, .
- Abdul d Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems; A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 03/32, .
- Morris Goldstein & Peter Montiel, 1986. "Evaluating Fund Stabilization Programs with Multicountry Data: Some Methodological Pitfalls (Evaluation des programmes de stabilisation du Fonds Ã partir de donnÃ©es sur divers pays: quelques Ã©cueils," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 33(2), pages 304-344, June.
- Vreeland,James Raymond, 2003. "The IMF and Economic Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521016957, December.
- Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2001. "IMF lending: how is it affected by economic, political and institutional factors?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 243-270.
- Conway, Patrick, 1994. "IMF lending programs: Participation and impact," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 365-391, December.
- Joyce, Joseph P., 1992. "The economic characteristics of IMF program countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 237-242, February.
- Joseph P Joyce, 2004. "Adoption, Implementation and Impact of IMF Programmes: A Review of the Issues and Evidence1," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(3), pages 451-467, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/152. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.