Guarding Against Fiscal Risks in Hong Kong SAR
Hong Kong SAR's government faces the dual challenges of volatile revenue and medium term spending pressures arising from a rapidly aging population. Age-related spending pressures raise long-run sustainability concerns, while revenue volatility creates risks to service provision, possibly entailing sudden tax changes, or even requiring new borrowing. After describing the risks associated with aging, the paper uses value at risk techniques to measure the value of the unanticipated risks posed by volatile revenue. The paper also describes the self-insurance value of Hong Kong SAR's traditionally high fiscal savings (reserves), and the impact alternate policy choices could have on revenue volatility.
|Date of creation:||01 Jul 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chari, V V & Christiano, Lawrence J & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1994.
"Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(4), pages 617-652, August.
- V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1993. "Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model," NBER Working Papers 4490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1993. "Optimal fiscal policy in a business cycle model," Staff Report 160, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Nathan Porter, 2007. "Revenue Volatility and Fiscal Risks: An Application of Value-at-Risk Techniques to Hong Kong's Fiscal Policy," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 6-24, November.
- Theodore M. Barnhill & George Kopits, 2003. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity," IMF Working Papers 03/79, International Monetary Fund.
- S. Rao Aiyagari & Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent & Juha Seppala, 2002.
"Optimal Taxation without State-Contingent Debt,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(6), pages 1220-1254, December.
- Lamin Y Leigh, 2006. "Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; Macroeconomic Impact of an Aging Population in a Highly Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 06/87, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.