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Guarding Against Fiscal Risks in Hong Kong SAR


  • International Monetary Fund


Hong Kong SAR's government faces the dual challenges of volatile revenue and medium term spending pressures arising from a rapidly aging population. Age-related spending pressures raise long-run sustainability concerns, while revenue volatility creates risks to service provision, possibly entailing sudden tax changes, or even requiring new borrowing. After describing the risks associated with aging, the paper uses value at risk techniques to measure the value of the unanticipated risks posed by volatile revenue. The paper also describes the self-insurance value of Hong Kong SAR's traditionally high fiscal savings (reserves), and the impact alternate policy choices could have on revenue volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Guarding Against Fiscal Risks in Hong Kong SAR," IMF Working Papers 07/150, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/150

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Chari, V V & Christiano, Lawrence J & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1994. "Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(4), pages 617-652, August.
    2. Theodore M. Barnhill & George Kopits, 2003. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity," IMF Working Papers 03/79, International Monetary Fund.
    3. S. Rao Aiyagari & Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent & Juha Seppala, 2002. "Optimal Taxation without State-Contingent Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(6), pages 1220-1254, December.
    4. Nathan Porter, 2007. "Revenue Volatility and Fiscal Risks: An Application of Value-at-Risk Techniques to Hong Kong's Fiscal Policy," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 6-24, November.
    5. Lamin Y Leigh, 2006. "Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; Macroeconomic Impact of an Aging Population in a Highly Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 06/87, International Monetary Fund.
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