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Guarding Against Fiscal Risks in Hong Kong SAR

  • International Monetary Fund
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    Hong Kong SAR''s government faces the dual challenges of volatile revenue and medium term spending pressures arising from a rapidly aging population. Age-related spending pressures raise long-run sustainability concerns, while revenue volatility creates risks to service provision, possibly entailing sudden tax changes, or even requiring new borrowing. After describing the risks associated with aging, the paper uses value at risk techniques to measure the value of the unanticipated risks posed by volatile revenue. The paper also describes the self-insurance value of Hong Kong SAR''s traditionally high fiscal savings (reserves), and the impact alternate policy choices could have on revenue volatility.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/150.

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    Length: 19
    Date of creation: 01 Jul 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/150
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    1. S. Rao Aiyagari & Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent & Juha Seppala, 2002. "Optimal Taxation without State-Contingent Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(6), pages 1220-1254, December.
    2. Lamin Leigh, 2006. "Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; Macroeconomic Impact of An Aging Population in a Highly Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 06/87, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Emerging Markets: The Tale of the Tormented Insurer," 2006 Meeting Papers 377, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Chari, V V & Christiano, Lawrence J & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1994. "Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(4), pages 617-52, August.
    5. Theodore M. Barnhill & George Kopits, 2003. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity," IMF Working Papers 03/79, International Monetary Fund.
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