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Monetary Policy Transparency and Financial Market Forecasts in South Africa

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  • Vivek B. Arora

Abstract

The transparency of monetary policy in South Africa has increased substantially since the end of the 1990s; but little empirical work has been done to examine the economic benefits of the increased transparency. This paper shows that, in recent years, South African private sector forecasters have become better able to forecast interest rates, are less surprised by reserve bank policy announcements, and are less diverse in the cross-sectional variety of their interest rate forecasts. In addition, there is some evidence that the accuracy of inflation forecasts has increased. The improvements in interest rate and inflation forecasts have exceeded those in real output forecasts, suggesting that increases in reserve bank transparency are likely to have played a role.

Suggested Citation

  • Vivek B. Arora, 2007. "Monetary Policy Transparency and Financial Market Forecasts in South Africa," IMF Working Papers 07/123, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/123
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=20977
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William Poole & Robert H & Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "Market anticipations of monetary policy actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 65-94.
    2. Swanson, Eric T., 2006. "Have Increases in Federal Reserve Transparency Improved Private Sector Interest Rate Forecasts?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 791-819, April.
    3. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
    4. M. Nowak & Ketil Hviding & Luca A Ricci, 2004. "Can Higher Reserves Help Reduce Exchange Rate Volatility?," IMF Working Papers 04/189, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesca Giubilo, 2010. "What Could be the Future of South Africa After National Elections on 22 April 2009?," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 16(4), pages 948-961, February.
    2. Martin Grandes & Marcel Peter & Nicolas Pinaud, 2010. "Pricing the Currency Premium Under Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from South Africa," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(60), pages 7-52, October -.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic forecasting; Capital markets; Financial markets; Monetary policy; South Africa; Transparency; inflation; inflation forecasts; monetary policy transparency; inflation targeting;

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