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Output Volatility and Large Output Drops in Emerging Market and Developing Countries

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  • Dalia S Hakura

Abstract

This paper establishes that output volatility and the size of output drops have declined across all countries over the past three decades, but remain considerably higher in developing countries than in industrial countries. The paper employs a Bayesian latent dynamic factor model to decompose output growth into global, regional, and country-specific components. The favorable trends in output volatility and large output drops in developing countries are found to result from lower country-specific volatility and more benign country-specific events. Evidence from cross-section regressions over the 1970-2003 period suggest that discretionary fiscal spending volatility, and terms of trade volatility together with exchange rate flexibility are key determinants of volatility and large output drops.

Suggested Citation

  • Dalia S Hakura, 2007. "Output Volatility and Large Output Drops in Emerging Market and Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/114, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/114
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lane, Philip R., 2003. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, pages 2661-2675.
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    Cited by:

    1. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," NBER Working Papers 14533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Dalia S Hakura & Ralph Chami & Peter J Montiel, 2009. "Remittances; An Automatic Output Stabilizer?," IMF Working Papers 09/91, International Monetary Fund.
    4. -, 2007. "Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2006-2007," Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1065 edited by Eclac, December.
    5. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Political institutions and economic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-326, September.

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