Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Output in Oil-Producing Countries; The Case of Iran
Conventional wisdom states that currency depreciation in oil-producing countries are contractionary because demand effects, limited by the prevalence of oil exports priced in dollars, are more than offset by adverse supply effects. Iran, however, has experienced a rapid increase in non-oil exports in the last decade. Against this background, the paper tests whether the conventional wisdom still applies to Iran and concludes that the emergence of the non-oil export sector has made currency depreciation expansionary. The expansionary effect is particularly evident with respect to anticipated persistent depreciation in the long-run. Notwithstanding the varying effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the demand and supply sides of the economy, managing a flexible exchange rate gradually over time towards achieving stability in the real effective exchange rate may strike the necessary balance.
|Date of creation:||01 May 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bahmani-Oskooee Mohsen & Mirzaie Aghdas, 2000. "The Long-Run Effects of Depreciation of The Dollar on Sectoral Output," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 51-61.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Barbone, Luca & Rivera-Batiz, Francisco, 1987. "Foreign capital and the contractionary impact of currency devaluation, with an application to Jamaica," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-15, June.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Magda Kandil, 2002. "Are devaluations contractionary in Asia?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 25(1), pages 69-82, January.
- Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978.
"Contractionary effects of devaluation,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
- Taye, Haile Kebret, 1999. "The Impact of Devaluation on Macroeconomic Performance: The Case of Ethiopia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, July.
- Rogers, John H. & Wang, Ping, 1995.
"Output, inflation, and stabilization in a small open economy: Evidence from Mexico,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 271-293, April.
- John H. Rogers & Ping Wang, 1993. "Output, inflation, and stabilization in a small open economy: evidence from Mexico," Research Paper 9315, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1991. "Output, devaluation and the real exchange rate in developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 18-41, March.
- Carlos A. VÃ©gh Gramont & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1995.
"Disinflation and the Recession-Now-Versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis; Evidence From Uruguay,"
IMF Working Papers
95/99, International Monetary Fund.
- Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Carlos A. VÃ©gh, 1996. "Disinflation and The Recession-Now-versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis: Evidence from Uruguay," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(2), pages 355-394, June.
- Peter Anker & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2001. "On the relationship between the value of the mark and German production," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1525-1530.
- Solimano, Andres, 1986. "Contractionary devaluation in the southern cone : The case of Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 135-151, September.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Aghdas, 2002. "Exchange rate fluctuations and disaggregated economic activity in the US: theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-31, February.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artatrana, 2008. "Exchange rate sensitivity of US bilateral trade flows," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 129-141, June.
- M Bahmani-Oskooee & I Miteza, 2003. "Are Devaluations Expansionary or Contractionary? A survey article," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 8(2), pages 1-28, September.
- Nunnenkamp, Peter & Schweickert, Rainer, 1990. "Adjustment policies and economic growth in developing countries : is devaluation contractionary?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1449, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2006. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Trade Flows: Evidence from Industry Data," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 542-559, January.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Goswami, Gour Gobinda, 2004. "Exchange rate sensitivity of Japan's bilateral trade flows," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
- Thorvaldur Gylfason & Michael Schmid, 1983. "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 641-54, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.