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Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them

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  • Mick Silver

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of statistical measurement issues relating to alternative measures of core inflation, and the criteria for choosing among them. The approaches to measurement considered include exclusion-based methods, imputation methods, limited influence estimators, reweighting, and economic modeling. Criteria for judging which approach to use include credibility, control, deviations from a smoothed reference series, volatility, predictive ability, causality and cointegration tests, and correlation with money supply. Country practice can differ in how the approaches are implemented and how their appropriateness is assessed. There is little consistency in the results of country studies to readily suggest guidelines on accepted methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Mick Silver, 2006. "Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them," IMF Working Papers 06/97, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/97
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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Republic of Madagascar; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 07/239, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Felipe Córdova & María Carolina Grünwald & Michael Pedersen, 2008. "Alternative Measures of Core Inflation in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 471, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Sanjay Kalra & Bui Thi Trang Dzung, 2016. "Robust Measures of Core Inflation for Vietnam," IMF Working Papers 16/19, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Adrian Armas & Lucy Vallejos & Marco Vega, 2010. "Measurement of price indices used by the central bank of Peru," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 259-283 Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Joice John & Abhiman Das & Sanjay Singh, 2016. "An Application of Quah and Vahey’s SVAR Methodology for Estimating Core Inflation in India: A Note," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 151-158, June.
    6. Brieuc Monfort & Santiago Peña, 2008. "Inflation Determinants in Paraguay; Cost Push versus Demand Pull Factors," IMF Working Papers 08/270, International Monetary Fund.

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    Keywords

    Consumer price indexes; Economic models; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy; Core Inflation; Core CPI; central bank; money supply; monetary authorities;

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