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The Role of IMF Support in Crisis Prevention

  • Uma Ramakrishnan
  • Juan Zalduendo
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    This paper examines the role of IMF-supported programs in crisis prevention; specifically, whether, conditional on an episode of intense market pressures, IMF financial support helps prevent a capital account crisis from developing and, if so, through what channels. In doing so, the paper distinguishes between the seal of approval inherent in IMF support and its financing, evaluates the interaction of IMF support with economic policies, and assesses whether IMF financing has a different impact on the likelihood of a crisis than other forms of liquidity. The main result is that IMF financing helps prevent crises through the liquidity provided (i.e., money matters). However, since the effect holds even after controlling for (gross) foreign exchange reserves, stronger policies and the seal of approval under an IMFsupported program must also play a role. Finally, the results suggest that IMF financing as a crisis prevention tool is most effective for an intermediate range of economic fundamentals.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/75.

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    Length: 31
    Date of creation: 01 Mar 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/75
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    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Kletzer, Kenneth & Mody, Ashoka, 2005. "The IMF in a World of Private Capital Markets," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt84s7r0jf, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    2. Michael D. Bordo & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes, 2004. "Keeping Capital Flowing: The Role of the IMF," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 421-450, December.
    3. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Catalytic Finance: When Does It Work?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1400, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Giancarlo Corsetti & Bernardo Guimaraes & Nouriel Roubini, 2003. "International Lending of Last Resort and Moral Hazard: A Model of IMF's Catalytic Finance," NBER Working Papers 10125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2002. "Do IMF Programmes Have a Catalytic Effect on Other International Capital Flows?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 229-249.
    8. Jun Il Kim, 2006. "IMF-Supported Programs and Crisis Prevention; An Analytical Framework," IMF Working Papers 06/156, International Monetary Fund.
    9. J. Zettelmeyer, 2000. "Can Official Crisis Lending be Counterproductive in the Short Run?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(1), pages 13-29, 02.
    10. Curzio Giannini & Carlo Cottarelli, 2002. "Bedfellows, Hostages, or Perfect Strangers? Global Capital Markets and the Catalytic Effect of IMF Crisis Lending," IMF Working Papers 02/193, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Ashoka Mody & Diego Saravia, 2005. "Catalyzing Private Capital Flows: Do IMF Programs Work as Commitment Devices?," Documentos de Trabajo 280, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
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