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Are Asset Price Guarantees Useful for Preventing Sudden Stops?A Quantitative Investigation of the Globalization Hazard-Moral Hazard Tradeoff

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  • Enrique G. Mendoza
  • Ceyhun Bora Durdu

Abstract

An implication of the "globalization hazard" hypothesis is that sudden stops could be prevented by offering foreign investors price guarantees on emerging markets assets. These guarantees create a tradeoff, however, because they weaken globalization hazard by creating international moral hazard. We study this tradeoff using an equilibrium asset-pricing model. Without guarantees, margin calls and trading costs cause Sudden Stops driven by Fisher's debt-deflation process. Price guarantees prevent this deflation by propping up foreign asset demand, but their effectiveness and welfare implications depend critically on the price elasticity of foreign demand and on making the guarantees contingent on debt levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique G. Mendoza & Ceyhun Bora Durdu, 2006. "Are Asset Price Guarantees Useful for Preventing Sudden Stops?A Quantitative Investigation of the Globalization Hazard-Moral Hazard Tradeoff," IMF Working Papers 06/73, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/73
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    2. Javier Bianchi, 2016. "Efficient Bailouts?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3607-3659, December.
    3. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan & Wang, Lidan, 2010. "Fiscal and monetary policies and the cost of sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 973-987, October.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2008. "Crises in Emerging Markets Economies: A Global Perspective," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 3, pages 085-115 Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Precautionary demand for foreign assets in Sudden Stop economies: An assessment of the New Mercantilism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 194-209, July.
    6. Emine Boz & C. Bora Durdu & Nan Li, 2015. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Role of Labor Market Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 31-72, February.
    7. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora, 2009. "Quantitative implications of indexed bonds in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 883-902, April.
    8. Hélène Rey & Philippe Martin, 2006. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1631-1651, December.
    9. C. Bora Durdu, 2011. "Review of "Emerging Markets Resilience and Growth Amid Global Turmoil by M. Ayhan Kose and Eswar S. Prasad"," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1111, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    10. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Lessons from the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 411-416, May.
    11. Urban J. Jermann, 2016. "Financial Markets’ Views about the Euro-Swiss Franc Floor," NBER Working Papers 21977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic models; Asset prices; Deflation; Globalization; Incomplete markets; Moral hazard; Sudden stops; Fisherian deflation; globalization hazard; price guarantees; bonds; trading costs; bond; Open Economy Macroeconomics; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; Fisherian Delfation;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets

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