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Are Asset Price Guarantees Useful for Preventing Sudden Stops?A Quantitative Investigation of the Globalization Hazard-Moral Hazard Tradeoff

  • Enrique G. Mendoza
  • Ceyhun Bora Durdu

An implication of the "globalization hazard" hypothesis is that sudden stops could be prevented by offering foreign investors price guarantees on emerging markets assets. These guarantees create a tradeoff, however, because they weaken globalization hazard by creating international moral hazard. We study this tradeoff using an equilibrium asset-pricing model. Without guarantees, margin calls and trading costs cause Sudden Stops driven by Fisher's debt-deflation process. Price guarantees prevent this deflation by propping up foreign asset demand, but their effectiveness and welfare implications depend critically on the price elasticity of foreign demand and on making the guarantees contingent on debt levels.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/73.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/73
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  1. Enrique G. Mendoza & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2000. "Capital-Markets Crises and Economic Collapse in Emerging Markets: An Informational-Frictions Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 59-64, May.
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  12. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1999. "Regional Contagion and the Globalization of Securities Markets," NBER Working Papers 7153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Diego Valderrama, 2002. "The impact of financial frictions on a small open economy: when current account borrowing hits a limit," Working Paper Series 2002-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  16. Cristina Arellano & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit Frictions and "Sudden Stop" in Small Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6499, Inter-American Development Bank.
  17. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Sudden Stops in an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model with Credit Constraints: A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q," 2005 Meeting Papers 307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  18. Lerrick, Adam & Meltzer, Allan H., 2003. "Blueprint for an international lender of last resort," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 289-303, January.
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