The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap; Is the Russian Economy Overheating?
This paper estimates the output gap in Russia using a utilization-adjusted production function approach, which we argue is preferable to traditional output gap methods. The approach amounts to (1) using available surveys to estimate the "natural rates" of capacity and labor utilization above which inflation begins to accelerate; (2) estimating a production function with utilization-adjusted capital and labor inputs; and (3) defining potential output as the level of output obtained when both capital and labor are at their estimated natural rates. The results suggest that the output gap in Russia was negative between 1999 and 2003, but may have recently become positive, thus contributing to inflationary pressures.
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yuri Andrienko & Sergei Guriev, 2003.
"Determinants of Interregional Mobility in Russia: Evidence from Panel Data,"
William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series
551, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Yuri Andrienko & Sergei Guriev, 2003. "Determinants of interregional mobility in Russia: evidence from panel data," Working Papers w0027, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
- Andrienko, Yuri & Guriev, Sergei, 2003. "Determinants of Interregional Mobility in Russia: Evidence from Panel Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 3835, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999.
"The Band pass filter,"
9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Irina Dolinskaya & Irina Tytell, 2001. "Explaining Russia's Output Collapse; Aggregate Sources and Regional Evidence," IMF Working Papers 01/16, International Monetary Fund.
- Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005.
"Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September.
- Franziska L Ohnsorge & Nienke Oomes, 2005. "Money Demand and Inflation in Dollarized Economies; The Case of Russia," IMF Working Papers 05/144, International Monetary Fund.
- Norman Morin & John J Stevens, 2005.
"Diverging Measures of Capacity Utilization: An Explanation,"
Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 46-54, October.
- Norman J. Morin & John J. Stevens, 2004. "Diverging measures of capacity utilization: an explanation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- S. Aukutsionek., 2003. "Productive Capacities of Russian Enterprises," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 5.
- Kwon, Goohoon & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2005.
"Russia's Regions: Income Volatility, Labour Mobility and Fiscal Policy,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Goohoon Kwon & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2005. "Russia's Regions; Income Volatility, Labor Mobility and Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 05/185, International Monetary Fund.
- Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J, 1993.
"German and American Wage and Price Dynamics: Differences and Common Themes,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
777, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics : Differences and common themes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 719-754, May.
- Wolfgang Franz & Robert J. Gordon, 1993. "German and American Wage and Price Dynamics: Differences and Common Thenes," NBER Working Papers 4292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics: Differences and common themes," Discussion Papers 2, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
- Mark Bils & Jang-Ok Cho, 1993.
"Cyclical factor utilization,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
79, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Carol Corrado & Joe Mattey, 1997. "Capacity Utilization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 151-167, Winter.
- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum, 1994.
"Factor Hoarding and the Propagation of Business Cycles Shocks,"
NBER Working Papers
4675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1996. "Factor-Hoarding and the Propagation of Business-Cycle Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1154-74, December.
- Norman J. Morin & John J. Stevens, 2004. "Estimating capacity utilization from survey data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Baxter, Marianne & Farr, Dorsey D., 2005. "Variable capital utilization and international business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 335-347, March.
- Niek Nahuis, 2003. "An alternative demand indicator: the 'non-accelerating inflation rate of capacity utilization'," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(11), pages 1339-1344.
- Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Ghostbusting; Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?," IMF Working Papers 04/146, International Monetary Fund.
- Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
- Kenneth M. Emery & Chih-Ping Chang, 1997. "Is there a stable relationship between capacity utilization and inflation?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q I, pages 14-20.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/68. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.