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The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap: Is the Russian Economy Overheating?

  • Nienke Oomes
  • Oksana Dynnikova

This paper estimates the output gap in Russia using a utilization-adjusted production function approach, which we argue is preferable to traditional output gap methods. The approach amounts to (1) using available surveys to estimate the "natural rates" of capacity and labor utilization above which inflation begins to accelerate; (2) estimating a production function with utilization-adjusted capital and labor inputs; and (3) defining potential output as the level of output obtained when both capital and labor are at their estimated natural rates. The results suggest that the output gap in Russia was negative between 1999 and 2003, but may have recently become positive, thus contributing to inflationary pressures.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 06/68.

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Length: 46
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/68
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  1. Goohoon Kwon & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2005. "Russia's Regions: Income Volatility, Labor Mobility and Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 05/185, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Norman Morin & John J. Stevens, 2004. "Diverging measures of capacity utilization: an explanation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Franziska Ohnsorge & Nienke Oomes, 2005. "Money Demand and Inflation in Dollarized Economies: The Case of Russia," IMF Working Papers 05/144, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Andrienko, Yuri & Guriev, Sergei, 2003. "Determinants of Interregional Mobility in Russia: Evidence from Panel Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 3835, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum, 1994. "Factor Hoarding and the Propagation of Business Cycles Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Carol Corrado & Joe Mattey, 1997. "Capacity Utilization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 151-167, Winter.
  7. Norman Morin & John Stevens, 2004. "Estimating capacity utilization from survey data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  9. Mark Bils & Jang-Ok Cho, 1993. "Cyclical factor utilization," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 79, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Kenneth M. Emery & Chih-Ping Chang, 1997. "Is there a stable relationship between capacity utilization and inflation?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q I, pages 14-20.
  11. Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Ghostbusting: Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?," IMF Working Papers 04/146, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Niek Nahuis, 2003. "An alternative demand indicator: the 'non-accelerating inflation rate of capacity utilization'," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(11), pages 1339-1344.
  13. S. Aukutsionek., 2003. "Productive Capacities of Russian Enterprises," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 5.
  14. Wolfgang Franz & Robert J. Gordon, 1993. "German and American Wage and Price Dynamics: Differences and Common Thenes," NBER Working Papers 4292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
  16. Baxter, Marianne & Farr, Dorsey D., 2005. "Variable capital utilization and international business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 335-347, March.
  17. Irina Dolinskaya & Irina Tytell, 2001. "Explaining Russia's Output Collapse: Aggregate Sources and Regional Evidence," IMF Working Papers 01/16, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
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