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Government Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates


  • Noriaki Kinoshita


This paper examines the relationship between government debt and long-term interest rates. A dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates debt nonneutrality is specified and solved, and numerical simulations using the model are undertaken. In addition, empirical evidence using panel data for 19 industrial countries is examined. The estimation provides some evidence supporting the theoretical predictions: the paper finds that the simulated and estimated interest rate effects of government debt tend to be small. However, an increase in government consumption and debt leads to a considerably larger effect. The paper also argues that, although the interest rate effects of pure crowding out may be limited, the economic impact of accumulating government debt cannot be ignored.

Suggested Citation

  • Noriaki Kinoshita, 2006. "Government Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 06/63, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/63

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Papaioannou, Elias & Portes, Richard & Siourounis, Gregorios, 2006. "Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 508-547, December.
    2. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2007. "The Demand for Treasury Debt," NBER Working Papers 12881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Beltran, Daniel O. & Kretchmer, Maxwell & Marquez, Jaime & Thomas, Charles P., 2013. "Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries and U.S. Treasury yields," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1120-1143.
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    5. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp103, IIIS.
    6. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Local Currency Bond Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 1-7.
    7. Joseph E. Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian P. Sack, 2011. "Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 41-59.
    8. Christopher J. Neely, 2010. "The large scale asset purchases had large international effects," Working Papers 2010-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia1, 2015. "The liquidation of government debt," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 291-333.
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    11. Kiichi Tokuoka, 2010. "The Outlook for Financing Japan's Public Debt," IMF Working Papers 10/19, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Paolo Mauro & Andrei A Levchenko, 2006. "Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect From Sudden Stops?," IMF Working Papers 06/202, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2012. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1789-1807.
    2. repec:eco:journ1:2017-05-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Coenen, Günter & Mohr, Matthias & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: Long-run benefits and short-run costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 912-932, September.
    4. Sri Hari NAIDU. A & Phanindra GOYARI & Bandi KAMAIAH, 2016. "Determinants of sovereign bond yields in emerging economies: Some panel inferences," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 101-118, Autumn.
    5. Cozzi, Guido & Davenport, Margaret, 2015. "The Imbalanced Catch-up to Rational Expectations: Capital Flows during Convergence," MPRA Paper 71009, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Apr 2016.
    6. Malešević Perović, Lena, 2015. "The impact of fiscal positions on government bond yields in CEE countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 301-316.
    7. David Greenlaw & James D. Hamilton & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2013. "Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 19297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. repec:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:169-190 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Cozzi, Guido & Davenport, Margaret, 2017. "Extrapolative expectations and capital flows during convergence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 169-190.
    10. Beck Hanno & Wentzel Dirk, 2011. "Ordnungspolitische Überlegungen zu einer Insolvenzordnung für Staaten / Principles for an Insolvency Code for States," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 62(1), pages 71-100, January.

    More about this item


    Debt; Government debt; Fiscal policy; long-term interest rates; dynamic general equilibrium model; birth rate; simulation results; general equilibrium model; equations;

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