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Beware of Emigrants Bearing Gifts; Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Presence of Remittances

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  • Michael T. Gapen
  • Thomas F. Cosimano
  • Ralph Chami

Abstract

This paper uses a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model to investigate the influence of countercyclical remittances on the conduct of fiscal and monetary policy and trace their effects on real and nominal variables in a business cycle setting. We show that remittances raise disposable income and consumption, and insure against income shocks, thereby raising household welfare. However, remittances increase the correlation between labor and output, thereby producing a more volatile business cycle and increasing output and labor market risk. Optimal monetary policy in the presence of remittances deviates from the Friedman rule, highlighting the need for independent government policy instruments.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael T. Gapen & Thomas F. Cosimano & Ralph Chami, 2006. "Beware of Emigrants Bearing Gifts; Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Presence of Remittances," IMF Working Papers 06/61, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/61
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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Albania; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 06/285, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Abdih, Yasser & Chami, Ralph & Dagher, Jihad & Montiel, Peter, 2012. "Remittances and Institutions: Are Remittances a Curse?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 657-666.
    3. Acosta, Pablo A. & Lartey, Emmanuel K.K. & Mandelman, Federico S., 2009. "Remittances and the Dutch disease," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 102-116.
    4. Lim, Sokchea & Morshed, A.K.M. Mahbub, 2015. "International migration, migrant stock, and remittances: Reexamining the motivations to remit," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 101-115.
    5. Ali Termos & Ismail Genc & George Naufal, 2016. "A Tacit Monetary Policy of the Gulf Countries: Is There a Remittances Channel?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 599-610, May.
    6. Mandelman, Federico S. & Zlate, Andrei, 2012. "Immigration, remittances and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 196-213.
    7. Batu, Michael, 2017. "International worker remittances and economic growth in a Real Business Cycle framework," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 81-91.
    8. Ralph Chami & Yasser Abdih & Amine Mati & Michael T. Gapen, 2009. "Fiscal Sustainability in Remittance-Dependent Economies," IMF Working Papers 09/190, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mandelman, Federico S., 2013. "Monetary and exchange rate policy under remittance fluctuations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 128-147.
    10. repec:eee:jmacro:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:147-174 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Dalia S Hakura & Ralph Chami & Peter J Montiel, 2009. "Remittances; An Automatic Output Stabilizer?," IMF Working Papers 09/91, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Magda Kandil & Ida A. Mirzaie, 2008. "The Impact Of Capital and Remittance Flows on Economic Performance in MENA Countries," Working Papers 440, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2008.
    13. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2014. "The Effect of Development Aid Unpredictability and Migrants’ Remittances on Fiscal Consolidation in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 168-190.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Republic of Moldova; Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 10/232, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Christopher P. Ball & Claude Lopez & Javier Reyes, 2013. "Remittances, Inflation and Exchange Rate Regimes in Small Open Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 487-507, April.
    16. Ziesemer Thomas H.W., 2009. "Worker Remittances and Growth: The Physical and Human Capital Channels," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, pages 743-773.
    17. Michael T. Gapen & Ralph Chami & Peter J Montiel & Adolfo Barajas & Connel Fullenkamp, 2009. "Do Workers’ Remittances Promote Economic Growth?," IMF Working Papers 09/153, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Serdar Sayan, 2010. "Emerging Market Business Cycles with Remittance Fluctuations," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 303-325, June.
    19. Gloria Clarissa O. Dzeha, 2016. "The decipher, theory or empirics: a review of remittance studies," African Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 113-134.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 14/232, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Guha, Puja, 2013. "Macroeconomic effects of international remittances: The case of developing economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 292-305.
    22. Fusshoeller, Chantal & Balleer, Almut, 2017. "Migration and investment: a business cycle perspective," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168125, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    23. Kumar, Ronald R., 2010. "Impact of trade openness, remittances, capital inflows & financial development on income in Vanuatu," MPRA Paper 33221, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Jayaraman, T. K. & Choong, Chee-Keong & Kumar, Ronald, 2011. "Role of Remittances in Economic Development: An Empirical Study of World’s Two Most Remittances Dependent Pacific Island Economies," MPRA Paper 33197, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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